Advertisement
Advertisement

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .6933 Pivot Sets the Tone on Thursday

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jul 2, 2020, 08:42 UTC

The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .6933.

AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar is edging higher early Thursday as traders await the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 12:30 GMT.

Increased demand for risky assets on the back of upbeat U.S. and European data is helping to underpin the currency, while concerns that a jump in global COVID-19 cases could derail the economic recovery may be keeping a lid on prices.

At 08:22 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6930, up 0.0015 or +0.22%.

The currency was supported on Wednesday following the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report that showed a huge positive revision in its May figures. ISM Manufacturing PMI also came in better than expected, crossing over to expansion.

Earlier today, it was reported that Australia’s trade surplus rose 2.0 percent to $8.03 billion in May, as imports fell faster than exports. The number was disappointing to some, coming in under the $9.00 billion forecast.

Exports dropped 4.0 percent to $35.7 billion, while imports dropped 6.0 percent to $27.7 billion, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday.

In other news, June’s Non-Farm Payrolls data is due at 12:30 GMT, with an increase of around 3 million jobs expected by analysts polled by Reuters. Last week’s jobless claims are also due at 12:30 GMT, with around 1.36 million unemployment filings expected after the previous week’s 1.48 million, along with the June unemployment rate and May’s balance of trade figures.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6975 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through .6977 is likely to trigger an acceleration to the upside. The main trend will change to down on a move through .6833.

The short-term range is .7065 to .6777. Its 50% level or pivot at .6933 is controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The intermediate range is .6506 to .7065. Its 50% level at .6785 is the first support.

The main range is .6402 to .7065. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at .6733 to .6655 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6933, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .6933.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6933 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into the two main tops at .6975 to .6977. Taking out .6977 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next targets a pair of main tops at .7065 and .7082.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6933 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a steep break into .6833. This is followed by .6811, .6785 and .6777.

Look for a labored break into .6733 and .6655. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

Did you find this article useful?

Advertisement