Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil continued its pump adding 10 cents to 48.00 while Brent Oil held well above the $50 mark as traders reviewed news
Crude Oil continued its pump adding 10 cents to 48.00 while Brent Oil held well above the $50 mark as traders reviewed news from Libya and Nigeria. Although they are both small producers the drop could create a dip in market supplies. News that some operations were halted along Colonial Pipeline, which stretches from Houston to Linden, N.J., propelled a rally that began earlier in the trading session on concerns about supply disruptions in Libya and Brazil.
Worries about decreased oil production in Libya and Brazil also boosted prices, pushing Brent crude, the global benchmark, above $50 a barrel for the first time since mid-October. Brent settled up $1.75, or 3.6%, to $50.54 a barrel.
Libya’s oil production will drop by about 70,000 barrels a day to less than 400,000 barrels a day after the Eastern export terminal of Zueitina was blocked by an armed militia, a spokesman for Libya’s National Oil Co. said Tuesday.
Libya has the capacity to pump as much as 1.5 million barrels a day, but oil production has suffered during an armed conflict between rival governments and attacks by the militant Islamic State. Exports from Zueitina were halted by protests for five months earlier this year before restarting in October.
In addition, Brazil’s biggest oil-sector union began a strike Sunday. The union represents workers on oil platforms, among other areas. Brazil produced 2.55 million barrels a day of crude oil and condensate in August, a record, according to the International Energy Agency.
he preliminary surveys suggest that Russia, the world’s top oil exporter, produced 10.8 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in October 2015. Russia is producing more oil in the oil glut market to offset lower crude oil and defend its market share. Russia is also devaluing its currency to promote the oil-export driven economy and to negate the collateral damage of crude oil prices. However, the record production from Russia will add to the crude oil glut market. It could extend the crude oil bear market.
The latest survey from Barclays suggests that China’s demand growth fell by 2.1% in September 2015 compared to last year. China is the second-largest consumer of crude oil after the US. The slowing Chinese economy and speculation of slowing demand are adding pressure to the oil glut market.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
WEEKLY
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
USD |
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock |
2.800M |
|
4.100M |
|
||
NZD |
Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3) |
-0.4% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
|||
NZD |
Unemployment Rate (Q3) |
6.0% |
6.0% |
5.9% |
|
||
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
||
AUD |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
-2.317B |
-3.000B |
-2.711B |
|||
CNY |
Caixin Services PMI (Oct) |
52.0 |
50.8 |
50.5 |
|
||
EUR |
German Services PMI (Oct) |
54.5 |
55.2 |
55.2 |
|
||
EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
EUR |
Markit Composite PMI (Oct) |
53.9 |
54.0 |
54.0 |
|
||
EUR |
Services PMI (Oct) |
54.1 |
54.2 |
54.2 |
|
||
GBP |
Services PMI (Oct) |
54.9 |
54.5 |
53.3 |
|
||
USD |
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment (Oct) |
|
180K |
200K |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
FOMC Member Stanley Fischer |
|
|
|
|
||
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) |
|
1.0% |
-1.8% |
|
||
EUR |
ECB Economic Bulletin |
|
|
|
|
||
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
||
EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision (Nov) |
|
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
||
GBP |
BoE MPC Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
||
GBP |
BoE Gov Carney Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
262K |
260K |
|
||
USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
2.3% |
-1.4% |
|
||
USD |
FOMC Member Stanley Fischer |
|
|
|
|
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USD |
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks |
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Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov
Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov
Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs
Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov
Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov
Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction
Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction
Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL
Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction
Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl
Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction
Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction