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Barry Norman

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 5, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continued its pump adding 10 cents to 48.00 while Brent Oil held well above the $50 mark as traders reviewed news from Libya and Nigeria. Although they are both small producers the drop could create a dip in market supplies.  News that some operations were halted along Colonial Pipeline, which stretches from Houston to Linden, N.J., propelled a rally that began earlier in the trading session on concerns about supply disruptions in Libya and Brazil.

Worries about decreased oil production in Libya and Brazil also boosted prices, pushing Brent crude, the global benchmark, above $50 a barrel for the first time since mid-October. Brent settled up $1.75, or 3.6%, to $50.54 a barrel.

Libya’s oil production will drop by about 70,000 barrels a day to less than 400,000 barrels a day after the Eastern export terminal of Zueitina was blocked by an armed militia, a spokesman for Libya’s National Oil Co. said Tuesday.

Libya has the capacity to pump as much as 1.5 million barrels a day, but oil production has suffered during an armed conflict between rival governments and attacks by the militant Islamic State. Exports from Zueitina were halted by protests for five months earlier this year before restarting in October.

In addition, Brazil’s biggest oil-sector union began a strike Sunday. The union represents workers on oil platforms, among other areas. Brazil produced 2.55 million barrels a day of crude oil and condensate in August, a record, according to the International Energy Agency.

he preliminary surveys suggest that Russia, the world’s top oil exporter, produced 10.8 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in October 2015. Russia is producing more oil in the oil glut market to offset lower crude oil and defend its market share. Russia is also devaluing its currency to promote the oil-export driven economy and to negate the collateral damage of crude oil prices. However, the record production from Russia will add to the crude oil glut market. It could extend the crude oil bear market.

The latest survey from Barclays suggests that China’s demand growth fell by 2.1% in September 2015 compared to last year. China is the second-largest consumer of crude oil after the US. The slowing Chinese economy and speculation of slowing demand are adding pressure to the oil glut market.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

2.800M

 

4.100M

 

 

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)

-0.4%

0.4%

0.1%

   

  NZD

 

Unemployment Rate (Q3)

6.0%

6.0%

5.9%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

-2.317B

-3.000B

-2.711B

   

  CNY

 

Caixin Services PMI (Oct)

52.0

50.8

50.5

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (Oct)

54.5

55.2

55.2

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (Oct)

53.9

54.0

54.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Oct)

54.1

54.2

54.2

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Oct)

54.9

54.5

53.3

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment (Oct)

 

180K

200K

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Stanley Fischer 

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)

 

1.0%

-1.8%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Economic Bulletin  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

 

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

262K

260K

 

 

  USD

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

2.3%

-1.4%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Stanley Fischer 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks 

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

 

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