Crude Oil Price Forecast: Can WTI Break Through $87.36?

WTI crude oil extended its short-term rally on Tuesday, reaching a high of $86.04 but with little conviction. Momentum died down quickly, resulting in a narrow range day and a likely close near the low of the day. Although Tuesday’s lack of conviction may signal further short-term weakness, the day’s $84.75 to $86.04 range has been largely above the prior high of $84.87, suggesting a possible switch from resistance to support. This is a short-term sign of strength that adds to the significance of the new bullish signal. The ability to hold above $84.87 on any near-term pullback could therefore become an important test of whether the breakout is gaining traction.

WTI crude oil daily chart shows breakout to new current trend high. Source: TradingView

$90.59 Emerges as Initial Target

In addition, Tuesday’s advance develops the second leg up in a rising ABCD pattern or measured move. An initial 100% projected upside target from the pattern is $90.59. If reached, the 100-day moving average at $89.14 and the downtrend line would also be reclaimed. Once there is a match between the two legs up in the ABCD pattern, a potential resistance zone has been reached. That makes the $89.14 to $90.59 area an important initial upside objective, where the advance could encounter stronger selling pressure.

WTI daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView

There is also the initial target derived from the falling bullish wedge, which broke out last week. That target is the top of the wedge, which is at the lower swing high of $94.34 from July. Since those two relatively clear patterns suggest a potential recovery through the 100-day moving average and downtrend line, the chance that these lower potential resistance levels are reached increases. A move through the first target zone would consequently improve the technical outlook and shift attention toward $94.34, where the July recovery previously stalled.

$87.36 Stands Between WTI and Higher Targets

The next upside target is near the lower swing high of $87.36, supported by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline at $86.80. Since the 100-day moving average is falling, it is approaching that initial target zone. Nonetheless, the area marks a key potential resistance zone, especially since $87.36 was confirmed as resistance during the prior advance in July. A sustained move above $87.36 would therefore provide additional evidence that the current rally has enough strength to challenge the higher pattern targets.

Pullback Could Set Up Next Advance

Given the potential for further upside, a pullback to test support near the 20-day moving average, now near $83.05, should be watched closely for signs of support. That could be the setup needed to attract more aggressive buyers to potentially complete the second leg up after the falling wedge bullish breakout. In other words, near-term weakness would not necessarily undermine the bullish setup if support holds. A successful test of the 20-day moving average would keep the focus on $89.14 to $90.59 and potentially $94.34.