Crude Oil Price Update – Sustained Move Under $69.26 Could Trigger Short-Term Break into $67.20 to $66.68

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell on Thursday as a bearish demand outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) offset a somewhat bullish demand forecast from OPEC despite concerns about the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant that has weighed on prices.

On Thursday, October WTI crude oil futures settled at $68.90, down $0.12 or -0.17%.

The IEA put the demand slump last month at 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) and predicted growth would be half a million bpd lower in the second half of the year compared to its estimate last month, noting some changes were due to revisions in data.

OPEC, on the other hand, stuck to its prediction of a strong recovery in world oil demand in 2021 and further growth next year, despite concerns about the spread of the Delta coronavirus that has weighed on prices.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $73.52 will change the main trend to up. A move through $65.00 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $69.87 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is $73.52 to $65.00. Its retracement zone is $69.26 to $70.27. On Thursday, this zone stopped the rally at $69.39, leading to the formation of a minor closing price reversal top.

The new minor range is $65.00 to $69.39. If there is follow-through selling on Friday, then its retracement zone at $67.20 to $66.68 will become the next downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the October WTI crude oil market early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $69.26.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $69.26 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move is able to generate enough downside momentum then look for a near-term break into $67.20 to $66.68.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking $69.26 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out yesterday’s high at $69.39 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into a cluster of potential resistance levels at $69.87, $70.27 and $70.84.