Dogecoin (DOGE) could decline another 20% toward $0.076 in the coming weeks as a bearish technical pattern emerges alongside a record drop in memecoin dominance relative to the broader altcoin market.
Let’s examine.
Dogecoin Broadening Wedge Points to 20% Decline
DOGE was trading near $0.0952 on Oct. 6, consolidating after failing to sustain its late-September rally above $0.10.
The token’s daily chart shows an emerging ascending broadening wedge, characterized by two diverging, upward-sloping trendlines. The pattern reflects increasingly volatile price swings and typically carries bearish reversal implications when its lower boundary breaks.
The wedge’s upper trendline extends toward $0.11, while its lower boundary currently provides support around $0.090–$0.092.
A decisive breakdown below this support zone could accelerate selling toward $0.0871, corresponding to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
Further weakness would bring the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $0.0828 into focus, followed by the $0.076–$0.077 region, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
The latter represents a roughly 20% decline from current prices.
DOGE’s daily relative strength index (RSI) has also cooled toward 57, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
Conversely, a sustained recovery above $0.1055 and a breakout above the wedge’s upper boundary would weaken the bearish outlook.
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See all Dogecoin forecastsMemecoin Dominance Hits Record Low: Is Capitulation Near?
Dogecoin’s bearish setup coincides with an unprecedented decline in memecoins’ relative market share.
The ratio of memecoin market capitalization to the broader altcoin market has fallen to approximately 0.027, or 2.7%, its lowest level on record in the chart’s history, according to CryptoQuant’s Darkfost.
The decline highlights how severely memecoins have underperformed other altcoins, even as the broader cryptocurrency market has recovered.
Such extreme relative underperformance can sometimes precede a speculative rebound as traders rotate capital into beaten-down assets.
However, the growing number of memecoins has also fragmented sector liquidity, potentially making sustained recoveries more difficult.
Moreover, historically low dominance does not necessarily indicate that selling pressure has exhausted itself.
For DOGE, the combination of weak sector-wide demand and an emerging bearish reversal pattern suggests downside risks remain elevated.
A confirmed wedge breakdown could therefore push Dogecoin toward $0.076, even if the broader memecoin sector eventually stages a recovery.
