XRP (XRP) could fall about 13% toward $1.30 in the coming sessions, even as the upcoming Evernorth merger strengthens the token’s longer-term institutional investment case.
The token was trading near $1.50 on Oct. 6, consolidating inside a descending triangle on its four-hour chart. The setup suggests short-term downside risks remain elevated despite growing excitement around Evernorth, an XRP treasury company preparing to go public through its merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II.
I remain constructive on XRP’s broader outlook. In my Oct. 2 analysis, I highlighted a recurring long-term technical fractal that could support a 125% rally toward $3.40-$3.50 if historical patterns repeat.
For now, however, XRP may correct before that bullish scenario develops.
XRP Descending Triangle Puts $1.30 in Focus
XRP has formed a series of lower highs since peaking above $1.60 in late September, while repeatedly finding support around $1.46-$1.47.
That combination has created a descending triangle, a structure typically resolved when price decisively breaks below horizontal support.
XRP is now trading near the pattern’s apex, with its short-term moving averages converging around spot price. Its 20-period and 50-period four-hour exponential moving averages sit near $1.50, while the 100-period EMA is around $1.49.
Meanwhile, the four-hour relative strength index is near 52, showing neither buyers nor sellers have a clear momentum advantage.
A decisive four-hour close below the $1.46-$1.47 support area, preferably alongside rising trading volume, would confirm the bearish setup.
The triangle’s maximum height is approximately $0.18, measured from its roughly $1.64 top to $1.46 support. Subtracting that distance from the breakdown point produces a downside objective near $1.28-$1.30.
That would amount to a roughly 13% decline from current levels.
The first meaningful downside obstacle sits around the 200-H EMA (green) near $1.44.
Conversely, a break above the triangle’s descending resistance near $1.51-$1.52 would weaken the bearish scenario and could put $1.55 and eventually $1.60 back in focus.
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See all Ripple forecastsWhy the Evernorth Merger Could Still Be Bullish for XRP
The short-term technical risks contrast sharply with developments surrounding Evernorth.
On Sept. 30, Armada II shareholders approved the merger, with the transaction expected to close on Oct. 7. The combined company is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN on Oct. 8.
Evernorth expects to hold approximately 473 million XRP at closing, which would make it the largest publicly traded pure-play XRP treasury company. The transaction is also expected to generate approximately $300 million in gross cash proceeds, alongside XRP contributed directly by investors.
In my view, that is potentially more important for XRP over the long term than Armada II’s headline-grabbing share performance.
The SPAC stock itself surged roughly 273% last week, rising from $10.58 to $39.42 and briefly touching $53. But about 80% of Armada’s trust capital appears set to return to shareholders, potentially leaving a much smaller public float and exaggerating price swings.
I would not treat the SPAC’s nearly 300% rally as evidence of equivalent demand for XRP itself. The stronger case is structural.
Evernorth gives traditional investors a listed vehicle for XRP exposure while potentially locking up roughly 473 million XRP in its treasury. If it continues accumulating after going public, it could become a recurring source of marginal demand.
That would support the broader bullish XRP thesis I outlined last week, even if the token first corrects toward $1.30. A break below $1.46 would strengthen the short-term bearish setup without necessarily invalidating the longer-term outlook.
