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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading slightly better as investors posture themselves ahead of this afternoon’s Fed announcements. Playing it straight and ignoring the outside noise, a hawkish Fed should be bearish for stocks. A dovish Fed is likely to fuel a short-covering rally.

Among the biggest outside influences at this time are the sell-off in Facebook shares, possible trade wars, new tariffs against China and the turmoil in the White House.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been shifting lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 7214.50 on March 13.

The main range is 6192.50 to 7214.50. Its retracement zone at 6703.50 to 6583.00 is the primary downside target. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this zone. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The intermediate range is 6676.00 to 7214.50. The index is currently straddling its retracement zone at 6945.25 to 6881.75. This zone has provided support this week.

The short-term range is 7214.50 to 6821.25. Its retracement zone at 7018.00 to 7064.25 is the primary upside target. This zone is very important to the structure of current chart pattern. Aggressive counter-trend sellers may show up on a test of this zone in an effort to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 6881.75.

A sustained move over 6881.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of the 50% level at 6945.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 7018.00 to 7064.25.

A sustained move under 6881.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger the start of a steep sell-off. The first target is Monday’s low at 6821.25. This is the possible trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next two targets 6703.50 and 6676.00.

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