E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Sellers Eyeing First Downside Target at 9479.50Given the early inside move and the fact that this week’s rally has been driven by upside momentum, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s high at 9628.25.
March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower early Thursday, following the lead in Asia where the major indexes finished mixed as investors weighed a spike in the number of new coronavirus cases reported in China’s Hubei province due to a tweak in methodology. The index sold-off shortly after the futures market opening after government officials in the province started to include “clinically diagnosed” cases in its tally, causing a spike in new cases.
At 07:13 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 9572.50, down 53.25 or -0.55%.
The index surged to a record high on Wednesday as investors, at the time, thought data had showed a peak in coronavirus cases. On Thursday, Fed speeches by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams on the economic outlook and monetary policy will be of interest to investors.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 9628.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 8966.00.
The minor trend is also up. A trade through 9330.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.
The minor range is 9330.75 to 9628.25. Its retracement zone at 9479.50 to 9444.50 is the first downside target. Since the trend is up, look for buyers to show up on the first test of this area. If it fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main retracement zone.
The main range is 8966.00 to 9628.25. Its retracement zone at 9297.00 to 9219.00 is another downside target and potential value zone. A test of this zone should also bring in buyers.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Given the early inside move and the fact that this week’s rally has been driven by upside momentum, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s high at 9628.25.
A sustained move over 9628.25 will indicate the return of buyers. Since there is no resistance, we could see an acceleration to the upside.
A sustained move under 9628.25 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out Wednesday’s low at 9523.75 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This will also make 8628.25 a new minor top.
The first downside target is the minor 50% level at 9479.50. Watch for a technical bounce. If it fails then look for the selling to extend into the minor Fibonacci level at 9444.50. Look for buyers again.
If 9444.50 fails then look for a possible acceleration to the downside with the next two targets 9330.75 and 9297.00.
Taking out 9628.25 then closing lower for the session will produce a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.