Spot Silver Spiked to $62.09 on Payrolls and Settled Near the Low
Spot Silver spiked to $62.09 after the September payrolls miss and settled at $60.37. The session high printed in the first hour after the report. The session low at $59.69 printed late. The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 5.243%, dropped to 5.157% on the headline, then reversed and closed at 5.275%, up 3.2 basis points. Spot Silver went up with the first move in yields and came down with the second one. A $2.40 range on one session and the close landed $1.72 below the high.
On Friday, Spot Silver settled at $60.37, down $0.62 or -1.02%. It opened at $60.95, traded as high as $62.09 after the employment report and fell to $59.69.
Daily Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis
Spot Silver settled lower on Friday after a volatile session. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $67.55 will change the main trend to up. A move through Friday’s low at $59.69 could signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The minor trend is also down after turning up early Friday and back down later in the session. A new minor top formed at $62.09.
Nearby resistance is the short-term retracement zone at $61.04 to $62.98, followed by the 50-day moving average at $64.03. Spot Silver also closed on the weak side of the long-term 50% level at $60.835, which is half of the all-time high.
On the downside, short-term swing-bottom support is $56.56 and $54.78. For longer-term traders, the $60.835 to $46.48 area could represent value.
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See all Silver forecastsPayrolls Missed Badly and Metals Ran on It
Payrolls came in at 29,000 when the Street wanted about 90,000. I didn’t need to read much past that. A downward revision and a higher unemployment rate just piled on. October hike odds slid into the low 20s.
Metals didn’t wait around. Silver blew through $62.00 on the headline and gold spiked to $4,227.53 right alongside it. That was the easy part of the day.
The 10-Year Made a Full Round Trip and Then Some
The 10-year opened at 5.243%. It fell to 5.157% in the minutes after the jobs report. By the afternoon the yield had reached 5.298%. It closed at 5.275%, up 3.2 basis points on a day that started with the weakest payrolls print since January.
Spot Gold opened at $4,175.97, spiked to $4,227.53 on the headline and got sold to $4,125.28. It settled at $4,140.52, down $36.87 or -0.88%. Spot Silver and Spot Gold both made their session highs on the first move in the 10-year and their session lows on the reversal. The morning and the afternoon traded like two different sessions.
The Dollar Index closed at 101.923, down 0.12%. It opened at 102.016 and traded between 101.668 and 102.132. The dollar slipped on the session. Spot Silver still settled lower. The 10-year was the trade Friday, not the dollar.
Late Buyers Got Caught on the Reversal
Anybody who bought Spot Silver on the payrolls spike above $61.50 watched the trade turn against them by the afternoon. The $62.09 high came early. The 10-year was still falling. By the time the yield turned, Spot Silver was already losing ground.
The settle at $60.37 put Spot Silver back under the long-term 50% level at $60.835. The 50-day moving average is at $64.03. The $62.09 minor top that formed on Friday’s spike is now the level sellers defended into the close. The session created a new resistance level and closed below a support level on the same day.
The payrolls number was the best data point metals buyers have gotten in weeks. The 10-year looked at 29,000 jobs and still closed higher. That is what Spot Silver carries into next week.
What to Watch
Spot Silver settled on the weak side of $60.835 with the $62.09 minor top overhead and the 50-day at $64.03 still well above the market. Friday’s low at $59.69 is the first downside trigger. Below it, the swing bottoms at $56.56 and $54.78 are the next support.
The 10-year closed at 5.275% after reversing a payrolls-driven dip. Late-October hike odds are in the low-20% range. The near-term bias is to the downside while Spot Silver stays under $60.835. Friday’s reversal from $62.09 to $59.69 told traders which direction had the conviction heading into the weekend.
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