E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index Weakness Puts 12968.00 on the Radar

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures dropped during Monday’s low volume, U.S. holiday shortened session, as traders continued to react to the brewing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The U.S. cash stock market was closed yesterday due to the President’s Day holiday, but Monday’s price action indicates that traders should brace for a plunge on Tuesday’s opening.

On Monday, the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract settled at 13735.50, down 260.50 or -1.90%. On Friday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) finished at $341.58, down $3.87 or -1.12%.

The futures market opened steady on Monday, but fell sharply shortly before the close after Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that he would recognize the independence of two breakaway regions in Ukraine, potentially undercutting peace talks with President Joe Biden.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 13706.00 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 14668.50 will change the main trend to up.

The main range is 12263.50 to 16768.00. On Monday, the futures contract settled on the weak side of its retracement zone at 14515.75 to 13984.25.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 13984.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13984.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the next main bottom at 13706.00.

Taking out 13706.00 will reaffirm the downtrend. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the May 12 main bottom at 12968.00 the next major target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13984.25 will signal the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the 50% level at 14515.75. This is the last potential resistance before the 14668.50 main top.