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James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are weaker but trading well off its lows shortly before the cash market opening. The benchmark index is being pressured primarily by a rising number of coronavirus cases. However, the release of disappointing unemployment data could trigger another wave of selling pressure although some see the news as potentially bullish because it could lead to additional government or central bank stimulus.

At 13:17 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3039.00, down 10.00 or -0.33%.

In economic news, an additional 1.48 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, the Labor Department said. Economists were looking for a print of 1.35 million. The index fell to its session low on the news, but quickly rebounded in reaction to the news that continuing claims fell by more than 700,000 last week.

Shares of companies that would benefit from the economy reopening were under pressure in early trading. Airlines such as American, Delta and United all fell more than 4%. Norwegian Cruise Line slid 8.5%.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has shifted to the downside. A trade through 3145.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through 2923.75 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the downside momentum.

The minor range is 3220.50 to 2923.75. Its 50% level or pivot at 3072.25 is controlling the price action today.

The short-term range is 2751.50 to 3220.50. Its 50% level at 2986.00 is the first downside target.

The main retracement zone is 2926.25 to 2781.00. This zone is expected to provide strong support since it is controlling the longer-term direction of the index. Should it fail to hold as support then look out below.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, and the current price at 3039.00, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 3072.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3072.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the index into 2936.00. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into a support cluster at 2926.25 to 2923.75.

Under 2923.75 is a main bottom at 2896.25. This is another potential trigger point for a steep plunge into 2781.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3072.25 will signal the return of buyers. The next two upside targets are 3145.75 and 3156.25. Overcoming the latter could trigger a surge into 3220.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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