ETH Bears Eye a Return to Sub-$1,650 on Staking Stats and the SEC

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, ETH extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.58% to end the session at $1,727.
• SEC v Binance news delivered support while staking inflows remained below trend.
• The technical indicators are bearish, signaling a return to $1,650.

Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.58% on Saturday. Following a 3.12% rally on Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,727. Significantly, ETH avoided sub-$1,700 for the first time in four sessions.

A bearish start to the day saw ETH fall to an early morning low of $1,713. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,667, ETH rose to a mid-morning high of $1,769. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,747 before easing back to sub-$1,720 and a range-bound afternoon.

Staking Statistics Send Bearish Signals

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows declined from 36,928 ETH on Friday to 31,616 on Saturday. The inflows remained below Saturday trends and the all-important 100,000 ETH threshold.

The total value staked climbed higher but at a slower pace, weighed by the narrowing in the net staking balance surplus.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals above normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were bullish, with principal ETH withdrawals projected to sit below normal levels.

On Thursday, the net ETH staking balance tumbled 71.45% to a surplus of 13,650 ETH, equivalent to $22.96 million. Deposits totaled 40,450 ETH versus withdrawals of 26,800 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 129,970 ETH, equivalent to approximately $224.77 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 6.18%, unchanged over 24 hours.

SEC v Binance Case-Related News Delivered Morning Support

Going into the weekend, staking statistics remained bearish. The staking APR stood at 6.18%, well below 8.9% levels seen in early June. A marked decline in staking APR coincided with the end of the US debt ceiling crisis and the SEC refocus on the digital asset space.

Staking inflows peaked on June 1 before falling and remaining below the 100k threshold on June 9, another bearish signal.

While the staking statistics remain bearish, the news of Binance striking a deal with the SEC to address the motion to freeze Binance US assets was bullish. The news supported a broad-based crypto rally, with the deal allowing Binance US to remain open for business during the SEC case.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet day, with no US economic indicators to influence the weekend. The lack of external market forces will leave ETH in the hands of the crypto news wires and the staking statistics.

A sharp increase in staking inflows and a widening of the net staking surplus would send bullish signals. However, market sentiment would need to significantly improve to support a pickup in staking inflows.

While the staking stats will continue to influence, SEC v Ripple, SEC v Binance, and SEC v Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was up 0.07% to $1,728. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,720 before rising to a high of $1,730.

ETH Technical Indicators

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bearish signals. Ethereum sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,734. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($1,734) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,760) to target the 100-day EMA ($1,769) and R2 ($1,792). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,734) would bring S1 ($1,704) and sub-$1,700 Major Support Levels into view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

Resistance & Support Level

ETH needs to move through the $1,736 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,760 and the Saturday high of $1,769. A return to $1,750 would signal an extended breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a bullish session.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,792 and resistance at $1,800. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,848.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,704 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,650. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,680 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,624.