Ethereum Price Prediction: Risk of a Pullback to $2,400 Increases as Volumes Drop

Ethereum (ETH) has barely moved in the past week, trading within a narrow range between $2,650 and $2,750 in the absence of a catalyst that can push it to higher levels.

It was our expectation that a drop in the odds of a rate hike in October could have pushed the price of ETH beyond its $2,800 resistance.

However, the crypto market seems ready to take a much stronger breather these days as the latest rally has stalled.

Ethereum ETFs Book Six Consecutive Days of Net Outflows

Wall Street seems to be progressively taking profits off the table after ETH’s climb from $2,400 to $2,800 in late September, as indicated by net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the top altcoin.

Data from SoSoValue shows that investors have withdrawn $207 million from these vehicles in the past 5 days. This has been the longest streak of outflows since late June.

This increases the odds of a pullback to the $2,500 – $2,400 range again, although the rollout of the Glamsterdam upgrade for the Ethereum blockchain could change the narrative completely.

This technical overhaul is expected to be released during the fourth quarter of the year, although no specific date has been set. As we discussed in a recent Ethereum price prediction, both the price action, this upcoming upgrade, and on-chain metrics are behaving similarly to April-May 2025.

Back then, ETH tanked at $1,400 and started to rally after the Pectra upgrade was successfully implemented on the mainnet. Ultimately, the rally pushed ETH to a new all-time high. We believe that the stage could be set for a similar scenario, as long as the $2,400 floor holds.

Ethereum MVRV Ratio Remains Positive Despite Latest Pullback

Looking at on-chain metrics, we can see that trading volumes declined lately for ETH, as the 7-day moving average for this metric made a bearish crossover with the 30-day MA.

However, another key metric we have been tracking lately, the MVRV Ratio, continues to be in positive territory despite the latest consolidation and has actually increased from 1.4% to 3.5%, implying that the cost basis of all ETH tokens in circulation has declined.

This is a positive and supportive piece of data for the current rally, as it highlights that investors accumulated ETH frantically below its current levels with the expectation that the price of the token will keep rising.

ETH Needs to Stay Above $2.4K to Keep the Rally Going

Turning to the daily chart, we can see clearly that ETH has entered an accumulation phase in the past week. Multiple attempts to rise past the $2,750 area have been met with strong selling pressure.

For now, bears have not managed to fully overpower bulls. However, if the selling persists and the $2,600 floor falters, we could rapidly retest our next buy zone, ranging from $2,400 to $2,500.

As long as that area holds, the rally remains intact. Meanwhile, momentum remains in favor of a bullish outlook as well, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently sitting above 50.

We expect ETH to rush past $2.8K at some point and keep moving toward $3,400 in the mid-term based on the size of the pole of its previous bull flag.