EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY at $105.47, CPI and Retail Sales in Focus

Arslan Ali
Published: Jun 18, 2024, 08:08 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to -6.0, boosting the U.S. Dollar Index to $105.47.
  • EUR/USD influenced by Final Core CPI at 2.9% and ZEW Economic Sentiment at 47.8.
  • US Core Retail Sales and Industrial Production data are pivotal for short-term dollar movement.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY at $105.47, CPI and Retail Sales in Focus

In this article:

Market Overview

On June 17, the Empire State Manufacturing Index reported a figure of -6.0, better than the forecast of -12.5 and a significant improvement from the previous -15.6. This positive surprise boosted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which now trades at $105.47.

Events Ahead

Looking forward, the Final Core CPI y/y is expected to remain steady at 2.9%, and the Final CPI y/y at 2.6%. Positive outcomes here could lend some support to the Euro. The ZEW Economic Sentiment, forecasted at 47.8, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 49.6, will also play critical roles. Any deviation from these expectations could cause significant movement in the EUR/USD pair.

In the U.S., Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales m/m figures, both forecasted at 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, will be pivotal. Industrial Production is also projected to grow by 0.3%, and the Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to edge higher to 78.6%.

The interplay between the robust dollar and economic data from the Eurozone and the UK will be crucial in shaping the near-term outlook for these currency pairs.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at $105.47. The index is positioned above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $105.29 and the 200-day EMA at $104.95, indicating a bullish trend in the short term.

Immediate resistance is noted at $105.65, followed by $105.81 and $106.00. These levels are critical for determining the potential continuation of the upward trend.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $105.22, with subsequent support levels at $105.03 and $104.85. The pivot point at $105.44 serves as a crucial level for short-term price direction.

A break above the immediate resistance of $105.65 could signal a bullish continuation, while a drop below the pivot point may lead to increased downside pressure.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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