EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts – U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As ISM Manufacturing PMI Misses Expectations

Vladimir Zernov
Updated: Mar 4, 2024, 16:52 UTC

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0830 as Euro Area Inflation Rate exceeded analyst expectations.
  • USD/CAD moved lower amid a broad rally in commodity markets.
  • USD/JPY pulled back towards the 150.00 level as Treasury yields declined.

In this article:

U.S. Dollar

DXY 010324 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index pulls back as traders react the disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI report, which showed that ISM Manufacturing PMI declined from 49.1 in January to 47.8 in February. Numbers below 50 show contraction. The final reading of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report has also missed analyst expectations.

The nearest support level for the U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 103.50 – 103.75 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index declines below the 103.50 level, it will head towards the next support at 102.80 – 103.00.


EUR/USD 010324 4h Chart

EUR/USD gains ground as traders react to the flash readings of the Euro Area inflation reports. Inflation Rate declined from 2.8% in January to 2.6% in February, compared to analyst consensus of 2.5%. Core Inflation Rate decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%, while analysts expected that it would drop to 2.9%. Both reports exceeded analyst expectations. The ECB has no reasons to start cutting rates in the near term, which is bullish for the euro.

In case EUR/USD stays above the 1.0830 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level at 1.0900 – 1.0920.


GBP/USD 010324 4h Chart

GBP/USD rebounded from session lows as traders focused on the economic data from the U.S. In the UK, Manufacturing PMI improved from 47 to 47.5.

A successful test of the resistance at 1.2650 – 1.2685 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.2800 – 1.2825.


USD/CAD 010324 4h Chart

USD/CAD pulled back as traders focused on the rally in commodity markets. Other commodity-related currencies have also gained ground in today’s trading session.

If USD/CAD settles below the 1.3550 level, it will move towards the support at 1.3480 – 1.3500.


USD/JPY 010324 4h Chart

USD/JPY pulled back towards the 150.00 level as Treasury yields moved lower.

From the technical point of view, the nearest support level at 149.50 – 150.00 has proved its strength. USD/JPY will need material catalysts to settle below the 149.50 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader and analyst with over 10 years of experience in the financial markets. He is a specialist in stocks, futures, Forex, indices, and commodities areas using long-term positional trading and swing trading.

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