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U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Oil Prices Pull Back: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By: 
Vladimir Zernov
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD gained some ground as traders focused on the pullback in the oil markets.
  • USD/CAD remained stuck near the 1.4150 level despite rising precious metals markets.
  • USD/JPY declined below the 157.50 level as Treasury yields pulled back.

U.S. Dollar Retreats Amid Profit-Taking

DXY 250926 4h Chart
DXY 250926 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders take some profits off the table after the strong rally and focus on the pullback in the oil markets.

Oil markets moved lower amid reports indicating that U.S. and Iran were thinking about a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders also focused on the final reading of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. The report showed that Michigan Consumer Sentiment declined from 51.7 in August to 48.1 in September, compared to analyst forecast of 47.6.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below the 101.00 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 101.50 – 101.65 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 102.35 – 102.50.

EUR/USD Attempts To Rebound As Oil Markets Pull Back

EUR/USD 250926 4h Chart
EUR/USD 250926 4h Chart

EUR/USD is moving higher as traders react to the pullback in the oil markets. According to FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the next meeting in October has declined to 64.2%, which was bullish for EUR/USD.

The nearest resistance level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1420 – 1.1435 range. If EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1435 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.1455. A move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515.

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GBP/USD Tests The 1.3250 Level

GBP/USD 250926 4h Chart
GBP/USD 250926 4h Chart

GBP/USD moved away from recent lows as traders took some profits off the table after the strong move. In the UK, traders focused on the GfK Consumer Confidence report for September. The report showed that Consumer Confidence improved from -14 to -13, compared to analyst forecast of -16.

If GBP/USD moves above the 1.3250 level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.3285 – 1.3300. In case GBP/USD manages to settle above 1.3300, it will move towards the 50 MA at 1.3345. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Remains Stuck Near The 1.4150 Level

USD/CAD 250926 4h Chart
USD/CAD 250926 4h Chart

USD/CAD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.4135 – 1.4150 despite the pullback in the oil markets. Other commodity-related currencies managed to gain some ground in today’s trading session.

If USD/CAD settles above the 1.4150 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250. On the support side, a move below the 1.4135 level will push USD/CAD towards the nearest support at 1.4065 – 1.4080.

USD/JPY Pulls Back Amid Falling Treasury Yields

USD/JPY 250926 4h Chart
USD/JPY 250926 4h Chart

USD/JPY is moving lower as traders focus on the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.88% level as traders reacted to the pullback in the oil markets.

Currently, USD/JPY is trying to settle below the 50 MA at 157.06. In case this attempt is successful, USD/JPY will head towards the support level at 155.00 – 155.50. On the upside, USD/JPY needs to settle back above the 158.50 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/JPY will head towards the resistance level at 160.00 – 160.50.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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