Mounting Bond Markets Stress
The MOVE Index measures bond market stress. As of Thursday, it surged to 104 and is threatening to break out of a three-year downtrend, suggesting significant market risk ahead.
10-Year Yield
The 10-year yield sliced through 5.00% and the 2023 high. If it continues rising at this pace, something is likely to break in financial markets.
Gold Big Picture
A little more downside is possible, but overall, I believe we are at the halfway point of a 10-year bull run that will take gold above $10,000 by the end of the decade. In hindsight, the current pullback will likely be barely noticeable.
Gold
Spot gold must close above $4,400 in the coming days or weeks to confirm an end to the current pullback. A break below $4,200 would risk triggering another round of selling into October.
Silver
Silver needs to close above $67.50 to confirm an interim low. Progressive closes below $62.00 would open the door to further downside in October.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecasts
Platinum
Platinum needs consecutive closes above the cycle downtrend line near $1,900 to confirm a bottom. Slipping below $1,700 would signal a secondary breakdown and renewed weakness into October.
GDX
Miners bottomed mid-year as forecast and rallied more than 50% in just over a month. The current pullback appears to be forming a bull flag, supporting a medium-term target of $135 – $140 upon a confirmed breakout.
GDXJ
Gold juniors may also be forming a bull flag, which projects a surge toward $175 upon a confirmed breakout in October.
SILJ
Silver juniors must break decisively above $31.00 to confirm a bull flag, targeting $40.00+ potentially in November.
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin surged in recent months, exceeding the May highs. The historic four-year cycle did not project a final bottom until October or November. For that pattern to be fulfilled, the current action would need to develop into a broadening bottom formation, with a lower low in Q4. A weekly close below $75,000 in October would bolster this potential.
Final Thoughts
Next week’s price action—particularly Wednesday’s PCE inflation and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report—will be critical for gold’s near-term outlook.
A continued spike in Treasury yields could create a headwind for precious metals and miners. However, we would view any such weakness as temporary within the broader uptrend.
Gold miners remain a key area of focus. I believe they could be the next market leaders, and I’ll be watching their price action closely for clues about the broader trend.
For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
