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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday after leaders of both the European Union and the United Kingdom confirmed that a draft Brexit deal had been agreed upon. Since reaching its highest level since August 26 shortly after the announcement was made, the single-currency has backed off, suggesting some doubts over the deal still exist.

At 12:56 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1113, up 0.0041 or +0.37%.

The uncertainty over the deal is being fueled by the news that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson still faces a challenge in getting approval in the British Parliamentary especially from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Union Party (DUP).

According to reports, DUP support is crucial in Johnson getting majority support. But shortly after the withdrawal deal was announced, the DUP said their earlier position of rejecting the fresh deal was unchanged.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend turned up earlier today when buyers took out the previous main top at 1.1110. A trade through 1.0879 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but after 12 sessions since its last main bottom, the EUR/USD remains inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The nearest upside target is the Fibonacci level at 1.1185. On the downside, support is the retracement zone at 1.1055 to 1.1021.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1113, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of Gann angles at 1.1117 and 1.1119.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1119 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This will put the EUR/USD in a position to challenge the main top at 1.1164, followed by the Fibonacci level at 1.1185.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1117 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1069, followed by a Fibonacci level at 1.1055.

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