Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Takes Center Stage

Gold (XAU) price dropped on Friday ahead of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole. The price dropped over 1% after reaching the three-month high earlier this week. The PCE inflation rate still remains at 3.7% and recent warnings from Fed officials have raised concerns about additional tightening. The odds of a rate hike in September are 33.8% while the odds of a rate hike in December are 45.1% as per the FedWatch tool. The higher rate expectations could boost the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. This may put pressure on precious metals.

But the overall picture is positive. Treasury support for long term bonds, stronger ETF participation, fiscal concerns and central bank buying continue to support demand. The hawkish comments by Warsh might lead to additional short term profit-taking. But buyers could take advantage of the pullback to buy the market before an upcoming attempt at the $5,000 mark. A balanced message may ease rate expectations and support the gold price to resume its rally.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,500 Support Keeps $5,000 in Focus

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has broken above the 200-day SMA at $4,500 and pushed higher to mark a high of $4,697 on August 25, 2026. After marking this high, the price is now pulling back toward the 200-day SMA near $4,500. If this level holds, it may resume the rally toward the $4,800 and $5,000 region.

This short term correction in spot gold is due to the overbought conditions indicated by the RSI. But the overall trend remains bullish. A break below $4,500 may push the price towards the $4,300 region. However, a break above $4,700 will push the price toward $4,800 quickly.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that the first resistance after the rebound from $3,950 is the $4,800 to $4,900 region. A break above this region will likely push the price to much higher level. The price may consolidate further or drop lower to find support for the next move.

Silver Price Forecast: Break Above $72 Opens the Path to $90

The daily chart for spot silver (XAG) also shows that prices have been consolidating within a tight range during the past few days. This consolidation has formed a bullish price structure and increased the possibility of an upside breakout. A break above $70 will push the price quickly towards the $72 region, which remains the short term pivot in the silver market.

This pivot is also indicated by the 200-day SMA, which aligns with the resistance area. A break above $72 will likely open the door for another move towards the $90 region. On the other hand, if the price fails to break above $72, it will likely pull back towards the $64 support. The RSI remains at 63.5, which indicates further upside potential for silver.

The importance of $72 in the spot silver market is also observed on the 4-hour chart. The chart shows that the price has already broken out of the descending wedge pattern, which is strong bullish signal. But the price must also break above $72 to validate this breakout and open the door for the next move towards the $90 area.

However, if the price fails to break above $72 and breaks below the $64 area, it will likely negate the short term bullish structure and open the way for another drop towards the $60 level.

What to Watch Next

Gold and silver remain bullish despite the short term pullback. The remarks by Warsh will likely guide the next move. A hawkish message could lift the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while the balanced tone may ease rate concerns. Gold must hold above $4,500 to keep the path open toward $4,800 and $5,000. A break below this support may push the price to the $4,300 region.

Silver must break above $72 to confirm the wedge breakout and target $90. But a drop below $64 may push the price toward $60. Strong ETF demand, central bank buying, fiscal concerns and Treasury support for long term bonds continue to support the broader outlook.

Read more: Is Gold Breakout Above $5,000 Next?