Gold News: Bullish Setup Intact, But Can Gold Prices Extend the Rally Post-NFP?

Will Gold Rally Sustain Above $3791.26 as Jobs Data Takes Center Stage?

Spot gold climbed for a sixth straight week, notching a fresh record high at $3791.26. With no resistance above, traders are eyeing psychological targets at $3800, $3900, and $4000. But stretched RSI readings and gold trading well above its 52-week moving average at $3067.26 raise the risk of a pullback—especially if this week’s data pushes rate cut bets further out.

The technical roadmap is clear: a higher-high and higher-low keeps the trend intact. But a higher-high followed by a lower close would form a closing price reversal top—often a sign that sellers are stepping in aggressively at elevated levels. Gold remains bid for now, but longs should stay alert for signs of exhaustion.

U.S. Labor Market in Focus as Fed Rate Path Hangs in the Balance

All eyes are on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Barclays sees job growth rebounding to 50,000 in September, up from just 22,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, though the Fed projects it rising to 4.5% by year-end. Supporting data includes Tuesday’s JOLTS report, Wednesday’s ADP payrolls, and Thursday’s jobless claims.

Markets still lean dovish—CME FedWatch shows an 88% chance of a 25bp cut in October, and a 65% chance of another cut in December. But stronger-than-expected GDP, firm consumer spending, and low jobless claims have chipped away at those odds. If labor prints firm across the board, the Fed may pause, pressuring gold in the process.

Dollar Index Tests Resistance as Fed Messaging Splinters

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed last week at 98.182, logging a second straight weekly gain. The next test is the 50% retracement zone at 98.238 and 99.098. A breakout above 99.098 would open up 100.257. Key support sits at 97.411 and 96.218.

Fed signals remain mixed. Barkin flagged limited inflation risk, while Bowman cited labor concerns and left the door open for cuts. Powell remains cautious. Until that divide resolves, traders will key off incoming data and front-end pricing—especially with the DXY so close to major resistance.

To understand DXY movements and their impact on currency markets, it’s essential to study How To Trade Forex: A No-Nonsense FX Guide for Retail Traders.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Setup Intact, But Jobs Data Could Flip the Bias

Gold still holds a bullish setup with momentum in its favor. A decisive breakout above $3791.26 keeps the door open to $3800 and beyond. But any failure to hold the high, especially on a weak close, risks triggering a pullback below $3700.

The outlook leans bullish as long as rate cut bets stay intact. But this week’s labor data could shift sentiment fast. A soft print would reinforce support for gold, while strong jobs numbers could knock rate cuts off the table and fuel profit-taking.

Watch the dollar near 99.098 and gold’s close around $3791.26—those are the pressure points for next week’s trade. Stay tactical.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.