Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Rally After NFP
Gold Price Predictions Video for 10.07.23
Gold Market Technical Analysis
Friday, after the Non-Farm Payroll numbers came out at 209,000 jobs added for the previous month, instead of the expected 225,000. Furthermore, the previous month had been revised lower, suggesting that perhaps we will continue to see a lot of problems. With that, I think you’ve got a situation where gold is trying to put in a bit of a bottom near the 200-Day EMA, which is also right around the 61.8% Fibonacci level. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to be noisy, and therefore I think you need look at it through the prism of taking advantage of value when it occurs.
If we were to try to break down below the 200-Day EMA, that would obviously be a very negative turn of events, because it not only would break down below a major technical analysis indicator, but it also opens up the possibility of a move down below the $1900 level, possibly even down to the $1800 level. The 61.8% Fibonacci level also offers quite a bit of support, so that being said I think the market continues to see a lot of noise and support in this general vicinity, so I think that short-term pullbacks continue to see a lot of the support, but if we can break above the $1950 level, then it’s possible that we could go higher, perhaps reaching toward the $2000 level.
With the negative correlation that we’ve seen between the gold market and the US dollar, it’s important to pay close attention to the US Dollar Index, and therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we would see that correlation continue to play out. All things being equal, we are between the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA indicators, which typically means you are going to see a lot of volatility anyway. Regardless, I do like the idea of owning gold and buying it on dips, but I don’t necessarily think that it’s going to be easy to deal with this type of noise. Once we do break out of this range, then it makes sense that we could have a bigger move.
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