Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – October 4, 2018 Forecast

Gold futures are trading unchanged shortly before the regular session opening. The range is tight and the volume low as investors continue to monitor the movement in the U.S. Dollar. The Greenback is trading lower against a basket of currencies. However, Treasury yields are moving higher. It looks like a risk-off day in the stock market, however, all this has done is underpin gold prices.

We could also be looking at position-squaring ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The early price action suggests that Tuesday’s surge to the upside was likely fueled by short-covering rather than new buying.

At 1033 GMT, December Comex Gold is trading $1202.40, down $0.60 or -0.055.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on September 28. A trade through $1215.80 will change the main trend to up. This is followed by main tops at $1218.00 and $1220.70.

A trade through $1184.30 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

On the upside, the retracement zone at $1205.90 to $1215.10 is resistance.

On the downside, the retracement zone support is $1193.90 to $1187.60.

The short-term range is $1215.80 to $1184.30. Its 50% level or pivot at $1200.10 is controlling the direction of the market today.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December Comex Gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1200.10.

A sustained move over $1200.10 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overcoming the uptrending Gann angle at $1201.10 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into $1205.90, followed by a downtrending Gann angle at $1207.70.

The angle at $1207.70 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the first target angle coming in at $1214.20, followed by $1215.10.

A sustained move under $1200.10 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move attracts enough sellers then look for the move to extend into $1193.90. This is another trigger point for an acceleration into $1187.60. This is followed by $1184.30 and another uptrending Gann angle at $1184.10.