Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Hike Bets Ease as Gold Eyes $4,448

Gold News: Fed Hike Odds Fall as Central Banks Keep Buying

Lower expectations for Fed Funds rate increases in the U.S. create better fundamentals for gold and silver, through August 17, of this year. Reuters said that markets are expecting a 30% chance of a September increase, compared to 50% before. Weak data regarding retail sales and sentiment also showed a loss of momentum that is slowing the economy. Investors are now interested to see what the Fed’s July meeting minutes will show regarding whether the members are more comfortable with the idea of holding rates steady.

The demand from central banks is another major aspect. Reuters reported that the central banks bought 289 tons of gold in the second quarter, approximately $45 billion, according to surveys done by Deutsche Bank. China bought around 20 tons in the month of July, and a World Gold Council survey showed that 45% expect to increase their holdings over the next year.

Positive investment demand also seems to be assessing gold. Global funds that are backed by gold showed inflows that were close to $3 billion in July, and increased holding by 23 tons to 4,068 tons after two straight months of outflows. Of the funds, Europe and Asia showed net buying.

Silver possesses its own unique structure. Reuters and the Silver Institute believe that the market will experience the sixth successive annual shortfall in 2026, estimating the shortfall to be around 46.3 million ounces. Manufacturing is expected to decrease by 2 percent to around 650 million ounces due to solar sector thrifting and substitution, while physical investment is increasing due to the long-term demand from the AI infrastructure, electronics, automotive systems, and the power grids.

The main precious metals theme for August 17 is increasing, due to declining rate expectations, while geopolitical tension and central bank buying support demand.                                                                            

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Holds Bullish Structure Above $4,333

Gold is trading at $4,403 on the 4-hour chart, as price has recovered from the sharp breakout in August. Currently sitting above both the 50-EMA at $4,323 and the 100-EMA at $4,248, price is in a favorable position to continue an uptrend. Additionally, the recent pullback to the $4,333 area was quickly absorbed and price has begun to trend upward, leading to the conclusion that buyers are defending price within therecovert structure.

RSI is also at 58, and is suggesting price has the ability to trend upwards, but also is not yet overbought. Resistance is at $4,448, with $4,518 and $4,596 as further resistance. As for support levels, first $4,333 holds importance, then $4,262 and $4,205.

Looking at the technical analysis as a whole, price of gold is still bullish while sitting above $4,333. If price breaks above $4,448, that would likely send price to $4,518 and a continuation of the recovery. Alternatively, if price breaks below $4,333, a continued correction to $4,262 would be worth looking at.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Rebounds Inside Rising Channel Toward $66.78

Silver is trading at $65.82 on the 4 hour chart after a rebound to the lower channel resistance. Silver has a highly favorable short term trend, despite the recent price consolidation below the recent highs. Price is well above the both the 50-EMA at $63.78 and 100 EMA at $62.26.

Gold and Silver both seem to be in favorable positions to trend higher, within their respective channels.

The latest candlesticks show buying interest at $63.57 – $64.00 support area. RSI at 59 shows positive momentum without overextending. $66.78 is the first resistance, then $68.24 and then $69.63. Support can be found at $65.00, and even more so at $63.57 and $62.20.

For me, silver is still technically bullish within the rising channel. A break above $66.78 could open $68.24 for further gains, while a breach of $63.57 could open $62.20.