Nasdaq Record Is a Vote for Growth, Not the Whole Market
The Nasdaq Composite Index made another all-time high Monday and the rest of the market didn’t follow. The Dow slipped and the S&P 500 barely moved. Traders are still buying the growth names, software stocks and takeover stories that are working, with long-term Treasury yields sitting uncomfortably high.
Technology buyers are looking past the bond market again, at least for now. Dow buyers aren’t. Friday’s jobs report cooled talk of another near-term Fed hike, but the long end is already climbing again.
At 16:34 GMT, the Nasdaq Composite is trading 27407.11, up 216.246 or +0.80%. The S&P 500 Index is at 7765.31
The Long End Is Still Setting the Tone
The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield opened the week higher after Friday’s jobs report knocked yields down hard. It’s up about 2 basis points at 5.296%. Friday’s drop isn’t erased, but bond sellers are clearly still around.
The 30-year yield is the bigger problem for stocks. It’s up 3 basis points at 5.661%. The Nasdaq is ignoring that for a session. I wouldn’t count on it lasting.
The two-year slipped about 1 basis point to 4.814%. The front-end Fed trade is calm. Traders see about an 82% chance the Fed leaves rates alone at its next meeting. The worry has moved from an October hike to how long the Fed stays restrictive and whether Treasury supply and inflation keep the long end elevated.
The Fed raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points in September. Wednesday’s minutes should show how united officials were behind that move and how they’re reading the run-up in long-term yields.
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See all Dow Jones forecastsPTC, DraftKings and Harley-Davidson Gave Buyers a Reason
Stock-specific stories kept money coming in. PTC surged 36% after agreeing to be acquired by Schneider Electric for $205 per share. The deal values PTC’s equity at more than $22 billion and is expected to close by the third quarter of 2027. A deal that size gives traders something more concrete than a macro opinion. It also put a bid under the software group on a day the Nasdaq was already leading.
DraftKings gained more than 5% after Bank of America upgraded it to buy from neutral. Analyst Julie Hoover calls prediction markets a win-win for the company even with the regulatory uncertainty. She estimates they could generate $400 million in fees in 2027, plus another $200 million to $400 million from market making.
Harley-Davidson climbed 5.7% after Citi upgraded it to buy from neutral on a major product introduction, cost savings and possible earnings help from LiveWire. Wells Fargo added 1% after Morgan Stanley moved it to overweight, citing better balance-sheet growth, less funding pressure and a path to higher returns. Estee Lauder rose 2.8% on a Barclays upgrade to overweight.
Brazil was the biggest risk-on move of the session. It had nothing to do with the Fed. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF jumped 12% after right-wing presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro edged incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by about 2 percentage points in Sunday’s election. Itau Unibanco and Banco Bradesco each rose more than 13% in U.S. trading.
Traders still have an appetite for risk. They’re just picking their spots. That kind of buying keeps the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 supported while the Dow tells the more cautious rates story.
Oil Eased, but Inflation Hasn’t Left the Room
Oil gave stocks a little help Monday. Brent crude fell 0.6% to $101.68 a barrel. WTI dropped about 1.6% to $89.60.
That’s still not cheap oil. Brent is over $100 and energy is still part of the Fed conversation. The ISM services report later Monday is the next read on how the economy is holding up under restrictive rates.
Daily Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) Technical Analysis
The Nasdaq Composite is edging higher on Monday after posting another record high at 27,384.64 earlier in the session. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 26,706.14 will change the main trend to down.
The minor trend turned up with Monday’s move through the two-day top at 27,288.79. That breakout confirmed 26,706.14 as the new higher main bottom. The prior main bottom at 25,802.96 was relevant until the new higher bottom was confirmed.
The 50-day moving average is sloping higher. It is providing price support as well as adding credibility to the swing-chart uptrend.
What to Watch
ISM services comes first, then the Fed minutes Wednesday. Both land on a bond market that’s already pushing long yields back up after the payrolls dip. Growth stocks are running anyway. The Dow and the long end are telling a different story.
The Nasdaq Composite Index cleared its two-day top Monday and turned the minor trend up on the way to the record. The main trend is up, the 50-day moving average is rising underneath and 26,706.14 is now the higher main bottom. The Dow isn’t confirming the move. Without it, this is a growth-stock record, not a broad-market breakout.
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