Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising Channels and OPEC+ Surplus Shape Price Outlook

Market Overview

Oil retreated on Monday after Novorossiysk resumed loadings, reversing last week’s gains driven by a temporary halt that disrupted about 2% of global supply. Although flows have restarted, ongoing geopolitical tensions keep traders cautious as the risk of further infrastructure disruptions lingers.

At the same time, OPEC+ output increases and a projected market surplus through 2026, according to ING, continue to anchor prices near the $60 mark, with expected swings inside a narrow $5 range.

Speculative positioning reflects this uncertainty, with Brent net longs rising by 12,636 lots amid supply-risk hedging.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is stabilizing near $4.49, holding inside a rising channel that has guided price higher since late October. The lower boundary is providing support near $4.42, where buyers stepped in again after the recent pullback.

The 20-SMA remains beneath price, showing continued short-term strength, while the 200-SMA sits much lower around $4.11, reinforcing a supportive broader trend.

Momentum has softened, with the RSI hovering around mid-40s, suggesting consolidation rather than a clear shift in direction. A break above $4.69 would reopen the path toward $4.86, while a close below $4.42 could expose $4.27 as the next downside level. Until then, natural gas is likely to stay inside this gradual upward structure.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is consolidating near $59.40, sitting between a descending trendline from the October highs and the rising trendline forming the lower boundary of a broader symmetrical structure. Price continues to trade below the 200-SMA, keeping the medium-term bias soft, while the 20-SMA has acted as short-term resistance over the past few sessions.

The recent rejection at $60.43 shows sellers defending the upper range, and momentum remains limited with the RSI hovering around the mid-40s. A close below $58.27 could open the way toward $57.35, while a break above $60.43 would shift focus back to $61.26.

Until either side breaks, WTI is likely to stay range-bound within this tightening pattern.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading around $63.80, holding inside a tightening symmetrical formation defined by a descending trendline from the October high and a rising base from mid-October. Price remains below the 200-SMA, keeping the broader trend soft, while the 20-SMA is acting as short-term resistance near $64.20.

The recent rejection from $65.33 shows sellers still active at the upper boundary. Momentum is steady but muted, with the RSI hovering near the mid-50s and showing no strong directional bias.

A close below $63.29 may guide Brent toward $62.33, while a break above $64.26 would shift focus back to $65.33. Until one of these levels gives way, the market is likely to stay inside this narrowing structure.