Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas prices tumbled on Wednesday closing on the lows of the session and falling more than 3.5%. This comes ahead of tomorrow’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 43 Bcf build according to survey provider Estimize. This comes as the US reported worst than expected Industrial Production data which showed that manufacturing dropped to a 74-year low. Supply in the US is flat according to a recent report from the Energy Information Administration.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices tumbled on Wednesday falling 3.5% and poised to test target support near the April lows at 1.52. Resistance is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1.66. Short term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium term momentum is also turning negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is about to generate a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Production Slows

Supply is flat. according to data from the EIA. The group reports that the average total supply of natural gas remained the same as in the previous report week, averaging 97.4 Bcf per day. Dry natural gas production remained unchanged week over week. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 2% from last week. Separately, The Federal Reserve reported that Industrial production fell 5.4%, the largest decline since 1946.