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Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Form Doji Day Following Inventory Report

By:
David Becker
Published: Nov 19, 2021, 18:21 UTC

Inventories rise less than expected buoying prices

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Form Doji Day Following Inventory Report

Natural gas prices were nearly unchanged trading just above support following Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal across the East Coast of the United States and warmer than normal across the West Coast.

Technical Analysis

On Thursday natural gas prices formed a doji day where the open and close hwere near the same level just abovet target support near the recent November lows at 4.72. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 5.07. The 10-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means a short-term downtrend is in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Prices are oversold. The fast stochastic is printing a reading of 15, below the oversold trigger level of 20. Medium-term momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

According to EIA estimates, natural gas in storage was 3,644 Bcf as of Friday, November 12, 2021. This represents a net increase of 26 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 31 Bcf build according to Estimize. Stocks were 310 Bcf less than last year at this time and 81 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,725 Bcf. At 3,644 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

About the Author

David Becker focuses his attention on various consulting and portfolio management activities at Fortuity LLC, where he currently provides oversight for a multimillion-dollar portfolio consisting of commodities, debt, equities, real estate, and more.

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