Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Grind Higher as Momentum Remains Positive

Cool-weather could weigh on prices
David Becker

Natural gas prices continued to move higher grinding upward and rebounding 9% since hitting its lows in early August. The weather is expected to become cooler than normal throughout most of the mid-west of the United States over the next 8-14 days and 6-10 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. There are no expected tropical storms in the gulf of Mexico, and there is with a 10% chance, expected to form in the upper Atlantic. This will not effect the natural gas drilling regions.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices ground higher and poised to test resistance is seen near last weeks highs at 2.27 and then the August highs at 2.33. Support is seen at the 10-day moving average at 2.15. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices. Short term momentum is flat as the fast stochastic consolidates, in the middle of the neutral range which reflects consolidation.

EIA Says Supply is Flat

Supply is flat, according to data from the EIA, after reaching a new record last week, the average total supply of natural gas remained the same as in the previous report week, averaging 96.0 Bcf/d. Dry natural gas production remained constant week over week after hitting a record high of 92.1 Bcf per day last week on August 5. Total demand remains flat. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas was unchanged from the previous report week, averaging 71.0 Bcf per day according to data from the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation was flat, averaging 41.4 Bcf per dayy. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 1% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased by 4%. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 2%.

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