Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound Testing Resistance Despite Warm Weather Forecast

Natural gas prices rebounded on Tuesday, testing resistance which is former support. In February LNG exports declined month over month. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout most of the east coast and the mid-west for the next 8-14 days. This should weigh on heating demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rebounded on Tuesday climbing 2.4% and testing resistance which is former support near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 2.56. Additional resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average near 2.66. Support is seen near the March low at 2.47 and the January lows at 2.41. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Prices are also oversold. The fast stochastic is printing a reading of 16, below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction.

LNG Exports Decline in February

In February, U.S. LNG exports averaged 7.5 Bcf/d, a 23% decline from January. LNG exports were affected by the logistical constraints associated with suspending piloting services on several days at some U.S. LNG export ports located in the Gulf of Mexico because of inclement weather. In addition, several U.S. LNG export facilities experienced lower natural gas feedstock supply in mid-February following declines in natural gas production because of extremely cold weather.