Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – market flashes a very bearish signal

The natural gas markets shot higher during the trading week, breaking above the $3.10 level after a bullish inventory number. However, if there’s one thing I’ve learned over time is that “price doesn’t lie.”
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas weekly chart, October 02, 2018

Natural gas markets initially shot higher during the week, and even reached as high as the $3.10 region before turning around. Friday was negative, and as a result we ended up forming a bit of a shooting star. After the absolutely astonishing run during the previous week, it makes sense that we would be a little bit exhausted. However, if we can break down below the $2.95 level, then it’s likely that we go back to the bottom of the overall consolidation range that I have clearly marked on this chart. I think that could send this down to the $2.75 level over time, but I would not expect a huge red candle like we got in the opposite direction recently. At this point, I do realize that we are starting to get close to the relatively bullish time of year, but I would also point out that we never got that massive breakout last year.

This market is very sensitive to short-term weather conditions, so that of course will cause some issues, but as I stated in the preamble, “price doesn’t lie.” This candlestick is extraordinarily bearish, and I suspect that if we break down we just simply returned to the bottom. Ultimately though, if we break above the top of the shooting star that is a very bullish sign and could send this market as high as $3.20, followed by $3.40 after that. I believe that this weekly candle stick could be crucial that is going to be formed over the next five sessions.

NATGAS Video 01.10.18

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