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Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Rallies As Traders Focus On Global Diesel Shortage

By
Vladimir Zernov
Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts

Key Points:

  • Natural gas gained ground on hotter weather forecasts.
  • WTI oil rallied as traders focused on the situation in European diesel markets.
  • Brent oil settled back above the $100.00 level.

Natural Gas Moves Higher As Traders Bet On Stronger Demand

Natural Gas 230926 Daily Chart
Natural Gas 230926 Daily Chart

Natural gas made an attempt to settle above the resistance at $3.00 – $3.05 as traders reacted to hotter weather forecasts and prepared for tomorrow’s EIA report.

In case natural gas manages to settle above the $3.05 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the $3.20 – $3.25 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the support side, a move below the $3.00 level will push natural gas towards the 50 MA at $2.86. If natural gas declines below the 50 MA, it will head towards the support at $2.75 – $2.80.

WTI Oil Rallies Amid Global Diesel Shortage

WTI Oil 230926 Daily Chart
WTI Oil 230926 Daily Chart

WTI oil rallied as traders focused on the situation in diesel markets and reacted to the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

The report indicated that crude inventories increased by +2.96 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst forecast of -0.6 million barrels. Gasoline inventories declined by -1.68 million barrels, while analysts expected that they would remain mostly unchanged.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined from 285 million barrels to 284.5 million barrels as U.S. continued to sell oil from strategic reserves. Domestic oil production pulled back from 13.944 million bpd to 13.939 million bpd.

President Donald Trump said that he favored a ban on U.S. exports of diesel. His remarks triggered a strong rally in European diesel futures and provided material support to oil markets. Russia, which is the world’s second-biggest diesel exporter, banned diesel exports due to attacks on the country’s refineries. Supply from the Middle East is limited as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.  The global diesel shortage serves as a positive catalyst for oil markets.

Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle above the resistance at $92.50 – $93.00. In case this attempt is successful, WTI oil will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the $97.00 – $97.50 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the support side, WTI oil needs to settle below the support at $88.50 – $89.00 to have a chance to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, WTI oil will head towards the $85.00 level.

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Brent Oil Tests Resistance At $101.50 – $102.00

Brent Oil 230926 Daily Chart
Brent Oil 230926 Daily Chart

Brent oil rallied as traders reacted to recent developments in European diesel markets. Traders also bet that any negotiations between U.S. and Iran would take weeks, so the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked.

If Brent oil manages to settle above the resistance level at $101.50 – $102.00, it will move towards the next resistance level at $109.00 – $109.50. A move above the 109.50 level will signal that the market is in a state of panic.

On the support side, a move below the psychologically important $100.00 level will push Brent oil towards the support at $97.00 – $97.50.

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About the Author

Vladimir ZernovFutures Trading Expert

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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