Oil News: Bullish Oil Outlook Builds as OPEC Shortfall and Russia Ban Tighten Supply

WTI Surges 5.32%: Weekly Breakout Fuels Bullish Oil Prices Forecast Above Key Support

WTI crude oil futures posted their best weekly performance since mid-June, climbing 5.32% to settle at $65.72. The rally was fueled by tightening global supply conditions, supportive geopolitical headlines, and a confirmed shift in the weekly trend structure. As the market trades decisively above long-term support, traders are now eyeing higher resistance levels with a bullish bias firmly in place.

Russia’s Diesel Ban and OPEC+ Output Miss Tighten Global Supply

Supply-side risk continues to drive sentiment. Russia extended its gasoline export ban and introduced a new diesel export ban through year-end, impacting roughly 12% of global diesel supply. The move follows ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, which are already disrupting product flows and tightening European diesel margins.

At the same time, OPEC+ fell 500,000 barrels per day short of its pledged production increases between April and August. This shortfall—roughly 0.5% of global oil demand—has sustained upward pressure on prices. With most non-core producers operating at or near capacity, the group’s ability to respond with additional supply remains constrained.

Kurdistan Crude Return Could Limit Gains — But Not Reverse Trend

Some bearish relief may come from the partial return of Kurdish crude. Iraq’s semi-autonomous region is poised to resume exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, with initial volumes expected around 180,000–190,000 barrels per day. However, ongoing payment disputes are delaying full-scale shipments, and at least one major producer has held back exports.

Unless volumes ramp quickly, the restart is unlikely to offset the broader supply-side constraints. For now, the return of some Kurdish barrels serves more as a cap on excessive upside than a driver of reversal.

Fed Caution and Strong GDP Data Slow Rate-Cut Momentum

On the macro front, a hotter-than-expected U.S. GDP revision to 3.8% has tempered expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. While the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point cut last week, the strength in economic data may delay further easing.

A slower rate-cut path could support the U.S. dollar and weigh modestly on crude, but so far, these factors remain secondary to physical supply constraints.

Weekly Technical Outlook: Upside Momentum Targets $69.34 and Beyond

The weekly trend turned up when crude oil broke above the 52-week moving average at $63.19. This level now acts as firm support, reinforced by the long-term pivot at $64.21. Additional momentum came as buyers cleared the prior swing top at $65.68, confirming a new bullish leg on the weekly swing chart.

Upside targets this week include $68.35 and the main top at $69.34. A breakout above $69.34 with strong participation could open the door for a potential surge toward $75.92. Any pullback is expected to hold above the 52-week moving average, which now serves as the primary downside level for trend validation.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.