Oil News: WTI Rallies on Russian Supply Risk as Oil Demand Outlook Turns Bullish

Russian Supply Gets Hit — But Will Kurdish Crude Offset the Gains?

Let’s talk about what’s been moving oil markets — because Friday gave traders something to chew on. WTI futures settled at $65.72, up $0.74 on the day, or +1.14%. That capped off a strong week, with a 5.32% gain, but it’s Friday’s close that really sets the tone heading into the new week. Traders were clearly feeding off a surge in geopolitical headlines and bullish technical signals.

So what’s driving the upside? A mix of old-school buying pressure and fresh supply risk.

Ukraine Drone Strikes Are Tightening Russian Supply

The biggest catalyst this week? Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia’s refining infrastructure. These hits have been stacking up, and traders are starting to price in meaningful supply disruptions. Russia’s already responding — announcing a fresh diesel export ban and extending its existing gasoline ban through year-end.

Add to that, the refining outages are creating localized fuel shortages in parts of Russia. That’s raising eyebrows for global supply desks. Any long-term hit to Russian product exports would be a bullish input — especially if China and India start dialing back their purchases under U.S. pressure, which some expect following comments from President Trump and other Western allies.

ANZ analysts are even flagging possible new sanctions after NATO warned Moscow about further airspace violations. Geopolitical premium, anyone?

Kurdistan’s Crude Is Coming Back Online — Sort Of

But wait — there’s a supply counterweight coming into play. Crude exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region are set to restart this weekend through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline after an 18-month pause. If all goes according to plan, we’re talking about 180,000–190,000 barrels per day flowing into the market.

That said, this isn’t an all-clear. Norway’s DNO — one of the major producers — said it won’t ship just yet, citing unresolved payment issues. So while some barrels may flow, the full restart might take time. And that gives bulls some breathing room.

Strong U.S. Data Adds Fuel — But Could It Spook the Fed?

On the demand side, U.S. GDP just got revised up to 3.8% annualized. That’s solid. If you’re trading demand proxies, that’s your green light. But here’s the twist — stronger growth could keep the Fed cautious. After a 25-basis-point cut last week, markets were hoping for a dovish tilt. This latest data might delay that.

Bottom line? Demand’s looking good, but don’t bet on a full-blown rate cut cycle just yet.

Technical Levels Traders Are Watching Closely

Let’s get tactical. WTI pushed through key moving averages this week — including the 50-day at $63.73 and the 200-day at $63.07. It also cleared several swing tops, with buyers now eyeing $66.42 as a breakout trigger. A sustained move above there opens the door to the next upside target zone between $68.35 and $69.34.

On the flip side, watch support down at $64.21 — the long-term 50% retracement level — with those moving averages just below.

So What’s the Play Here?

We’ve got bullish momentum, fresh geopolitical risk, and supportive U.S. data — but a potential supply offset from Kurdistan looms. As of now, the path of least resistance looks higher, especially if WTI can clear $66.42 and hold above those major MAs.

Outlook: Bullish, with technicals and geopolitics doing the heavy lifting. But keep one eye on the Kurdistan flows — they could cap upside if volumes ramp quickly.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.