Silver Price Forecast: NFP Puts 200-Day EMA in Focus

Silver Technical Analysis

The silver market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session on Thursday, but gave those gains back pretty quickly as we continue to hang around the 200-day EMA. This doesn’t surprise me, considering that we have the nonfarm payroll announcement coming out on Friday, and perhaps traders are a little bit hesitant to get overexposed to a volatile asset such as silver.

Longer term, there’s a lot of demand for silver, but right now there’s a lot of focus on the interest rate complex, and interest rates are elevated at this point. With the nonfarm payroll announcement coming out on Friday, there will be a lot of attention paid to that, with the Federal Reserve most certainly in focus.

Federal Reserve Policy and the Jobs Report

The Federal Reserve, of course, recently had comments coming from Kevin Warsh that the Fed was possibly even going to have to tighten further. This jobs report number, if it ends up being hotter than anticipated, could reinforce that, and it could cause major problems for silver, as well as other commodities.

Conversely, if that jobs report comes out cooler than anticipated, the market could turn around and see silver go flying towards the upside again as traders may change their bets on Federal Reserve policy.

Right now, the market is in a bit of flux. It’s almost as if some people don’t believe him, and the bond market certainly doesn’t. But at this juncture, traders will be very cognizant of the next data point, making Thursday a potentially choppy session.

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