Silver (XAG) Forecast: Breakout or Breakdown? Fed Minutes May Decide the Next Move

Silver Firms Above Key Support as Market Awaits Fed Clarity

Spot Silver (XAUUSD) settled higher last week at $50.58, up $2.26 or +4.68%. The market spiked mid-week, nearly tagging the multi-year high at $54.49 before pulling back into the retracement zone between $50.02 and $51.07. Buyers stepped in, but there was no breakout.

Sellers pressed, but they didn’t take out support either. The trend remains up, but momentum stalled inside the zone that’s controlling the short-term direction.

Weekly Chart: $50.02–$51.07 Zone Still In Charge

The main trend is still bullish as long as $45.55 holds. That swing bottom defines the line between continuation and reversal — and it’s the level that would confirm a double top if taken out.

Right now, silver is stuck between the 50% retracement at $50.02 and the 61.8% level at $51.07. Break through $51.07 with conviction, and a retest of $54.49 is back in play. If the market drops through $50.02, sellers could drive it into the $45.72–$43.66 zone that marked the last wave of buying.

Fed Minutes May Shape the Next Move

This week’s release of the November FOMC meeting minutes could be a key driver. With no October inflation or labor reports due to the 43-day government shutdown, traders are flying blind. Rate cut odds for December have dropped to 49%, down from 95% just a few weeks ago.

Fed speakers like Susan Collins and Mary Daly have leaned into a more cautious tone, warning that the lack of hard data makes it harder to justify easing. The minutes may offer a clearer view of how seriously the Fed is rethinking its next move — or if they’re simply waiting for the data to catch up.

Gold Stalls Out, and Silver Takes a Step Back

Gold’s failure to break out last week didn’t help. After testing resistance at $4245.20, it reversed and finished under the 50% retracement at $4133.95. That hesitation weighed on silver. With Treasury yields holding firm and the U.S. dollar refusing to break, metals lacked the momentum to follow through. Silver tends to follow gold when headline flow is thin — and this week, it did just that.

Bottom Line: Bulls and Bears Both Have a Shot

The trend is still up, but silver is boxed in. A break through $51.07 puts $54.49 back on the table. A move under $50.02 targets $45.72 to $43.66.

Bulls need help from the Fed minutes or renewed confidence in a policy shift. Bears are leaning on the Fed’s caution, missing data, and fading conviction.

Until one of those sides gains control, silver’s next $4 move could go either way — and it won’t wait for a closing print to start.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.