Silver (XAG) Forecast: Market Holds Ground with Eyes on PCE and Central Bank Commentary

Silver Holds Support After Pullback, All Eyes on PCE and Fed Commentary

Silver prices began the week rebounding after a three-session decline, with the market holding key technical support ahead of Friday’s high-stakes inflation report. Despite recent selling pressure, the broader uptrend remains intact, bolstered by a favorable technical structure and cross-asset signals from gold and the dollar.

At 11:33 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $33.15, up $0.12 or +0.37%.

Key Technical Levels Reinforce Bullish Structure

Silver is trading above its 50-day moving average of $32.01, a critical level that continues to act as the market’s trend anchor. The retracement zone between $32.53 and $31.81 is also providing solid support. A break above $34.24 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend, putting $34.87 in play as the next upside target. Monday’s rebound signals that buyers are defending key levels despite broader uncertainty across financial markets.

Macro Data, Fed Speeches to Steer Near-Term Price Action

This week’s macroeconomic calendar is packed with potential catalysts. The February PCE index, due Friday, will be the primary driver for rate expectations. With core PCE forecast to rise 0.3%–0.4%, any upside surprise could dampen hopes for mid-year rate cuts. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, and their tone will be critical in shaping market sentiment. A hawkish tilt could pressure silver and other non-yielding assets if real rates rise.

Cross-Asset Support from Gold and a Softer Dollar

Gold is holding firm above $2,968, supported by dollar weakness and safe-haven demand tied to tariff uncertainty. The U.S. dollar index is down 3.4% month-to-date, creating a tailwind for precious metals by improving affordability for international buyers. While gold remains rangebound near its highs, the broader bullish structure provides indirect support for silver as both metals trade in sympathy during macro-driven sessions.

Market Outlook: Cautious Bullish Bias Holds into Friday

Silver’s short-term outlook leans constructive as long as prices hold above the $31.81–$32.01 support band. The market is clearly coiling ahead of Friday’s PCE release, and volatility is likely to increase on any inflation surprise. A break above $34.24 would confirm renewed upside momentum, while failure to hold current support would shift focus to the lower end of the retracement zone. Until then, traders should expect rangebound action with a bullish tilt driven by macro sensitivity and technical resilience.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.