XRP Bucks the Early Trend with no SEC v Ripple Rulings to Influence

Key Insights:

• XRP bucked the trend through the early hours to partially recover a 3.23% loss from Thursday.
• Investors have some respite from the SEC v Ripple case, with no final ruling on the Hinman documents likely until late June.
• Key technical indicators remain bearish. XRP sits well below the 50-day EMA.

On Thursday, XRP fell by 3.23%. Following a 0.64% loss on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.3924. The reversal came despite radio silence on the SEC v Ripple case, with a broad-based crypto sell-off leaving XRP in the red.

Thursday’s loss was modest relative to the broader market, with ADA (-7.00%), BNB (-6.86%), and ETH (-7.73%) seeing heavier losses.

Near-term, the SEC extensions have had little impact other than raising the prospect of the case extending into 2023.

One court ruling that will draw plenty of attention, however, is the SEC’s claim that all documents relating to the Hinman Speech are protected by the attorney-client privilege.

It Could Be a Long Summer for XRP Holders, Ripple, and the SEC

On Thursday, defense lawyer James Filan shared an updated schedule and status of the SEC v Ripple case.

#XRPCommunity #SECGov v. #Ripple #XRP Updated schedule and status as of May 26, 2022. pic.twitter.com/jkRopw0nFG

— James K. Filan 🇺🇸🇮🇪96k+ (beware of imposters) (@FilanLaw) May 26, 2022

 

At the time of writing, outstanding issues include,

• Judge Netburn’s ruling on the SEC’s claim that the attorney-client privilege protects all Hinman documents.
• Objection to the court’s DPP ruling.
• Ripple Defendant’s Motion to Compel the SEC to answer or amend their answers to Requests for Admissions.
• Motion for Attorney’s Fees regarding the Metz Supplemental Report.
• The Motion by amici curiae to participate in the Motion to Exclude Expert Testimony.
• Motions to Exclude Expert Testimony.
• The Motions for Summary Judgement.

For XRP holders and the Ripple Defendants, the court decision on the Hinman documents will likely be the key for the summer.

In reality, however, and as pointed out by James Filan, the SEC will likely object to any court ruling ordering the SEC to produce any documents. The SEC would have to file an objection no later than 14 days after the court ruling.

Then, the Ripple defense team will have 14-days to respond to any objections before the court can make its ruling. That could take the matter of the Hinman documents and the attorney-client privilege into July.

The stage is, therefore, set for a long summer, with more objections and extensions likely.

Interestingly, the SEC filed an extension to oppose the amici curiae counsel letter requesting to participate in a briefing relating to the expert challenge. John Deaton, counsel for the amici curiae said,

“Deaton represents 67k ACTUAL XRP HOLDERS and wants to present what they were ACTUALLY thinking.”

The SEC plans to present expert testimony on what XRP holders were thinking, when buying XRP. Considering the extension to oppose, the SEC wants to prevent representation from actual XRP holders.

With no final ruling on the Hinman documents likely in the coming weeks, however, XRP found much-needed support this morning.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.76% to $0.3954.

A choppy start to the day saw XRP fall to an early morning low of $0.3853 before striking a high of $0.4023.

Technical Indicators

XRP will need to avoid the $0.3925 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level at $0.4102. XRP would need broader crypto market support to break out from this morning’s high of $0.4023.

In the event of an extended rally, XRP should test the Second Major Resistance Level at $0.4280 and resistance at $0.43. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $0.4635.

A fall through the pivot at $0.3925 would bring the First Major Support Level at $0.3747 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off throughout the day, XRP should avoid sub-$0.37. The Second Major Support Level at $0.3570 should limit the downside.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bearish signal. At the time of writing, XRP sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.4111. This morning, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA also fell back from the 200-day EMA, XRP negative.

A move through the 50-day EMA would support a return to $0.45.