XRP Moves Hinged on Court Ruling Following the SEC-Ripple Conference

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, Judge Sarah Netburn held an SEC-Ripple conference to dig deeper into the SEC’s claims that William Hinman’s speech-related documents fall under the attorney-client privilege.
• The SEC has relentlessly attempted to shield the Hinman documents from the Ripple defense, placing a final court ruling at the heart of the SEC’s case.
• Key technical indicators remain bearish. XRP sits below the 100-day EMA.

On Tuesday, XRP rose by 1.22%. Following a 1.87% gain on Monday, XRP ended the day at $0.4025. The upside came as investors turned their attention to the SEC-Ripple conference.

A choppy session saw XRP slide to an early morning low of $0.3839 before finding support.

XRP fell through the First Major Support Level at $0.3946 and the Second Major Support Level at $0.3868.

The rebound saw XRP break back through the Major Support Levels and through the First Major Resistance Level at $0.4096 to strike a day high of $0.4167.

Coming up against the Second Major Resistance Level at $0.4168, XRP fell back to end the day at sub-$0.41.

While movement throughout the day tracked the broader crypto market, there was also plenty of interest in the court-scheduled SEC-Ripple conference to discuss the William Hinman speech-related documents and SEC claims that the documents fall under the attorney-client privilege.

Attorney John Deaton discussed the conference on YouTube late on Tuesday.

An SEC-Ripple Conference Summary Had a Muted Impact on XRP

On Tuesday, attorney John Deaton delivered interested parties a summary of the SEC-Ripple conference.

Deaton highlighted comments and a series of questions posed by Judge Sarah Netburn during the conference. These included,

• Help me understand what advice Hinman received?
• For what was he seeking advice?
• Do you stand by the position last year that the speech was his personal opinion?
• The SEC has distanced itself from that speech as his personal opinion.

John Deaton, who attended the conference in New York, made some observations, which included,

• When the SEC has to turn over the documents, the SEC will settle.
• Judge Netburn knows that the SEC will appeal any unfavorable ruling to Judge Torres.
• SEC used a junior lawyer to represent at the conference, suggesting the SEC knows they have a losing a hand.
• Court decision likely by the end of next week with a ruling likely in favor of Ripple.
• A settlement would remove the chances of an appeal and provide certainty.
• The only way the SEC will settle is if the court rules in favor of Ripple vis-à-vis the Hinman speech-related docs.
• Assuming there is no settlement, the summary judgments are all due by November, with the court decision likely in March.
• Loomis Bill could usurp the case, but the bill will need to be signed by the president, making it more likely that a settlement or a court ruling will come first.
• Fair notice defense would mean that Ripple won’t have to pay the fine, but XRP will be a security. Such an outcome would leave XRP holders stranded.

By way of background, John Deaton is counsel for the amici curiae, representing over 67,000 XRP holders in the SEC v Ripple case.

Ripple (XRP) Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.96% to $0.3994.

A mixed morning saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.4099 before falling to a low of $0.3947.

Technical Indicators

XRP will need to move through the $0.4027 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level at $0.4214. XRP would need the broader crypto market support to break out from the morning high of $0.4099.

In a broad-based crypto rebound, XRP should test resistance at $0.43. The Second Major Resistance Level sits at $0.4355.

Failure to move back through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level at $0.3886 back into play.

Barring an extended sell-off throughout the day, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3850. The Second Major Support Level sits at $0.3699.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bearish signal. At the time of writing, XRP sits below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.4079. Today, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, XRP negative.

A move through the 100-day EMA to $0.41 would support a run at the 200-day EMA and $0.45. For XRP, a breakout may be unlikely ahead of any court ruling on the Hinman documents following the SEC-Ripple conference.