XRP News Today: Government Shutdown Fuels Speculation on ETF Timing

XRP Spot ETF Launches on Ice: What Do XRP Traders Need to Know?

The US government shutdown effectively closed the door on launching crypto-spot ETFs. Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF had a final decision deadline of October 2, 2025. However, the September 30 government shutdown meant that the SEC could not approve the S-1, required for the issuer to begin trading. The delay may work in XRP’s favor.

Analyst View: GLS Could Reshape ETF Rollouts

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart commented:

“Litecoin filing was technically due today under 19b-4. But as multiple people have reported, it looks like SEC wants everyone to file under the new Generic Listing Standards (GLS) for all of these products. Which means this deadline date might not matter at all. Also, the government shutdown really throws a wrench into things??”

Despite the delay, Seyffart remained optimistic about the SEC greenlighting crypto-spot ETFs, concluding:

“This is all to say we are uncertain about what’s happening at this exact moment. That said—we do still think they’ll launch in the near future.”

Seyffart raised an interesting point, suggesting that the SEC may want all the crypto-spot ETFs, including the XRP ETFs, to launch simultaneously under the GLS.

The SEC approved the Generic Listing Standards for Commodity-Based Trust shares in September. The GLS removes the need for crypto-spot ETF issuers to file 19b-4s and for the SEC’s review process, typically 240 days.

What It Means for XRP Traders

The SEC could approve the S-1s for all of the crypto-spot ETFs simultaneously, once the Senate passes the stopgap funding bill and the SEC staff return to work. The same-day launch of all the crypto-spot ETFs would importantly remove any first-to-market advantage.

Market Insight: Eleanor Terrett’s Commentary

Crypto America host and journalist Eleanor Terrett provided further color on the status of the crypto-spot ETFs, stating:

“As I understand it, the shutdown could affect the LTC ETF approval because the SEC still needs to sign off on the S-1, and the agency is operating on a skeleton crew. It’s unclear what remaining staff is working/what their priorities are at the moment. Since the generic listing standard went into effect and the agency asked issuers and partner exchanges to withdraw their 19b4s, I’m told the deadlines technically no longer matter.”

While deadlines originally applied under 19b-4, the adoption of GLS renders them obsolete.

Notably, crypto-spot issuers recently withdrew their 19b-4s and filed amended S-1s, signaling an imminent launch. The withdrawals and S-1 amendments could mean that XRP-spot ETFs launch before their final decision deadlines, potentially boosting demand for XRP. However, the timing of listing and trading would likely hinge on the length of the US government shutdown.

Shutdown Extends, Fed Cuts Loom

The Senate failed to pass either the Republican or Democratic proposals to reopen the federal government for a fourth time on Friday, October 3. The impasse will extend the shutdown to at least Monday, October 6.

The shutdown could work for XRP and the broader crypto market’s favor. Markets are betting on the Fed cutting interest rates in October and December, boosting demand for risk assets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool:

• Probability of the Fed lowering its federal funds rate (FFR) target range to 3.75-4.00% in October increased from 87.7% (September 26) to 96.2% (October 3).
• Chances of a December FFR target range cut to 3.50-3.75% rose from 65.4% (September 26) to 86.3% (October 3).

Bitcoin Rally Lifts Crypto Market

Expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter drove demand for BTC-spot ETFs, underscoring the influence of the Fed’s policy stance on cryptos. The US BTC-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to five sessions on Friday, October 3, reporting total net inflows of $3.24 billion for the week.

Bitcoin (BTC) came within touching distance of its all-time high of $123,731, climbing to $123,698 on Friday, October 3. Sentiment toward the Fed’s policy outlook and demand for BTC-spot ETFs drove BTC to a seven-week high, sending the broader crypto market higher.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Can Bulls Defend $3?

XRP slipped 0.01% on Friday, October 3, partially reversing the previous day’s 3.15% rally to close at $3.0404. The token underperformed the broader market (1.24%) but held above the psychological $3 level.

Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support: $3, $2.8, $2.5.
• Resistance: $3.2, $3.3, $3.66 (all-time high).

In the near term, several key drivers could dictate price trends:

• XRP ETF demand, crypto-spot ETF developments (delays or launches), and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies target XRP for treasury reserve purposes.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related developments may also influence near-term price trends.

Catalysts & Scenarios

The combination of ETF demand, legislative developments, and XRP’s status as a treasury reserve asset could determine whether XRP breaches key support levels or breaks above resistance.

Bearish Scenario

• GDLC, BITW, and XRPR ETFs register outflows, and BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• SEC postpones XRP-spot ETF launches.
• Lawmakers delay crypto-friendly regulations, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT retains its market share in global remittances, capping Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could drag XRP below the $3 level, exposing $2.8. A drop below $2.8 could pave the way toward the $2.5 support level.

Bullish Scenario

• BITW, GDLC, and XRPR register strong demand.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves S-1s for XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill receives bipartisan support.
• Ripple erodes SWIFT’s dominance in the global remittance business.

These bullish events could send XRP toward $3.2, with a breakout supporting a move toward $3.3. A break above $3.3 would bring the all-time high of $3.66 into play.

The Big Question: Will the US Government Shutdown Make or Break the XRP Rebound?

The government shutdown could play in XRP’s favor, having delayed the launch of an LTC-spot ETF. A simultaneous launch of all crypto-spot ETFs would put XRP on a level playing field with Litecoin (LTC). Given XRP’s utility in the real world and potential to partially replace SWIFT, investors could target XRP-spot ETFs as a long-term investment.

Meanwhile, the Market Structure Bill’s progress in the Senate will also be crucial. Traders should closely monitor legislative developments. The bill’s passing could boost demand from retail and institutional investors.

For context, XRP soared 14.69% on July 17, 2025, as investors reacted to the US House of Representatives passing the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. The broader crypto market rose just 1.78% on the day, highlighting XRP’s sensitivity to legislative developments.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory risks influence XRP’s price outlook in the coming weeks.