The UK Leadership Race: The First Ballot and Who’s On the Way Out

Boris Johnson continues to be favorite, while Michael Gove will need to get lucky to make it into next week… The 1st ballot is tomorrow.
Bob Mason
Parliament

Who’s in the Running

On Monday, we saw the final list of Conservative Party MPs that have gone head to head before tomorrow’s 1st scheduled ballot.

There are 10 candidates currently fighting to stay in the race, with one of the 10 to fall out in tomorrow’s ballot.

Who are the 10 and where do they sit on Brexit?

Pro-Brexiteers

Andrea Leadsom (Brexit without a deal would be acceptable)

Boris Johnson (Leave on Halloween, deal or no-deal);

Esther Mcvey (Not afraid of a no-deal Brexit)

Michael Gove (Open to a no-deal departure, but would prefer negotiating a deal)

Sajid Javid (Changed from a Pro-Remainer to Brexiteer)

Dominic Raab

Fence Sitters

Matt Hancock, and Mark Harper

Pro-Remainers

Jeremy Hunt, and Rory Stewart

What Lies Ahead

With the final 10 heading into tomorrow’s Ballot, there will be 9 remaining come Friday.

Outsiders Matt Hancock and Sajid Javid, by MP Support, would be amongst the favorites to be balloted out. Others include Esther Mcvey and Mark Harper.

It wouldn’t be the first time, however, that Tory MPs delivered a shock ballot result and that’s before considering the backstabbing.

It wasn’t too long ago that front runners Boris Johnson and Michael Gove made the news. Back in 2016, Michael Gove entered the leadership race unexpectedly, ending the chances of either making it to the top job. While there is allegedly no bad blood, if Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are the last men standing, it could get interesting…

Going into tomorrow, MP support will begin to come into the equation ahead of the 18th June ballot, where anyone with less than 32 MP support is required to drop out.

That will make the ballots over the 19th and 20th June all the more interesting… Candidates will be looking to draw in MPs that had supported those who failed to make the cut…

For the Pound,

We saw the Pound find support on Tuesday on hopes that the leadership race would lead to a soft Brexit.

There’s a long way to go, however. We have seen the Conservative Party implode since the David Cameron resignation.

Theresa May failed to unite the party and it is unlikely that the winner of the leadership race will be able to do so. Not at least until after Britain has left the EU.

Barring a surprise result, tomorrow’s ballot is unlikely to have a material impact on the Pound.

Over the course of today and the early part of tomorrow, the market sentiment towards the likely outcome of next week’s ballots will be the key driver.

We can expect plenty of speculation on who has garnered the most support.

Michael Gove may have spurned his chances, following the latest scandal. It could be a shock exit tomorrow if MPs feel that there is little point for Gove to make the cut…

It may be a shock for the Pound, however, as would be an untimely Boris Johnson departure…

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by just 0.04% to $1.27254.

 

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