The Week Ahead – Central Banks, Economic Data, and COVID-19 in Focus
On the Macro
It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 57 stats in focus in the week ending 7th May. In the week prior, 61 stats had been in focus.
For the Dollar:
In the 1st half of the week, private sector PMIs and ADP nonfarm employment change figures are in focus.
Expect the market’s favored ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP figures to be key.
The focus will then shift to the weekly jobless claim figures on Thursday ahead of the NFP numbers on Friday.
Expect nonfarm payroll figures and the unemployment rate to be the main area of focus late in the week.
On the monetary policy front, FED Chair Powell is scheduled to speak early in the week. The markets will be looking for any break from the script.
In the week, the Dollar ended the week up by 0.46% to 91.280.
For the EUR:
It’s also a busy the week on the economic data front.
Monday through Wednesday, private sector PMIs for Italy and Spain and German retail sales figures are in focus.
While retail sales are key, expect Italy and the Eurozone’s private sector PMIs to be key.
Late in the week, the German economy is back in focus.
German factory orders, industrial production, and trade data are due out. Following some disappointing GDP numbers last week, we can expect EUR sensitivity to the stats.
On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is due to speak at the end of the week…
The EUR ended the week down by 0.64% to $1.2020.
For the Pound:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
Finalized private sector PMIs will be in focus in a shortened week.
Expect any revisions to the services PMI to be key.
The main event of the week, however, is the BoE’s monetary policy decision on Thursday.
While the BoE is expected to stand pat, any dissent and hawkish talk give the Pound a boost.
The Pound ended the week down by 0.39% to $1.3822.
For the Loonie:
It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
On Tuesday, trade data for March will influence ahead of April employment and Ivey PMI figures on Friday.
Expect the employment figures to be the key driver at the end of the week.
The Loonie ended the week up 1.51% to C$1.2288 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead.
Key stats include manufacturing data at the start of the week and trade data on Tuesday.
Building approvals are also due out on Wednesday but will likely have a muted impact on the Aussie Dollar.
While we can expect the trade data to have the greatest impact, the RBA monetary policy decision is the main event of the week on Tuesday.
Any hawkish chatter and expect the Aussie Dollar to eye a return to $0.80 levels.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.30% to $0.7716.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead.
On Wednesday, employment figures for the 1st quarter are due out ahead of building consent numbers on Thursday.
Expect the employment change figures to be key in the week. The markets will be looking from a pickup in hiring to support a sustainable economic recovery.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.51% to $0.7162.
For the Japanese Yen:
It is a quiet week ahead, with the Japan markets closed Monday through Wednesday.
Economic data is limited to finalized private sector PMIs for April. Barring any marked revision from prelim figures, however, we don’t expect too much impact on the Yen.
The Japanese Yen rose by 0.85 to ¥107.88 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
It’s a busy week ahead.
Through the 1st half of the week, the market’s preferred Caixin survey PMI numbers are due out. Expect the manufacturing PMI for April to have the greatest impact on Tuesday.
At the end of the week, April trade figures will also be in focus.
A continued surge in both imports and exports would support riskier assets.
The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.33% to CNY6.4749 against the U.S Dollar.
U.S and China and U.S and Russia relations remain the main areas of focus in the week ahead.
The markets will also need to monitor any chatter from Iran, however.
While a number of the big names have released earnings results, a large number are still scheduled to release results in the week ahead.
From the U.S, big names include CVS Health Corp (Tues), ICHOR Holdings (Tues), and FOX Corp (Wed).