AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY Technical Analysis: RBA Cuts, Fed Signals, and Key Levels

RBA Rate Cuts and Domestic Data Keep AUDUSD in Consolidation

The Australian Dollar consolidates near resistance after gains in the previous session. Australia’s Q2 Wage Price Index rose 0.8% QoQ, meeting expectations but below the prior 0.9% growth. The annual figure increased 3.4%, slightly above forecasts, indicating wage growth resilience but also a moderation in momentum.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s third rate cut in 2025 weighed on the currency. The 25 bps reduction brought the cash rate to 3.6%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the need to ensure price stability amid easing inflation and a softer labour market. The meeting-by-meeting approach leaves room for flexibility but keeps policy bias tilted toward further easing if needed.

The lower interest rates reduce currency appeal by narrowing yield differentials with peers. However, the impact was partially offset by relief from tariff-related tensions, which improved the trade outlook for Australia’s key exports to China.

US Data, Fed Outlook, and Trade Truce Influence Price Action

The US Dollar consolidates after the release of inflation data but remains under bearish pressure. US CPI came in at 2.7% YoY in July, slightly below expectations, while core CPI rose 3.1%, above consensus.

This combination reinforced market bets on a Fed rate cut in September, with odds climbing to 94%. The lower US rates typically weaken the USD, providing some support to the AUD.

Moreover, the statements from Fed officials suggested multiple cuts could come this year. Governor Bowman cited labour market weakness as outweighing inflation risks. Similar comments from other policymakers added to the dovish tone. A softer USD outlook could support AUDUSD despite Australia’s easing bias.

On the other hand, the trade relations between the US and China also played a role. The Trump administration delayed new tariffs on China for 90 days. This truce supports global risk sentiment and benefits the AUD due to Australia’s close economic ties with China. Positive developments in upcoming US-China talks could further boost the pair.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern

The 4-hour chart for AUD/USD shows the price rebounding from the support of the ascending broadening wedge pattern at 0.6440. This rebound appears constructive and suggests that prices may continue to move higher toward 0.6650.

A break above 0.6650 could push the pair toward 0.6720. The emergence of an inverted head and shoulders pattern above 0.6440 and the break above 0.6530 has opened the door for a continuation of the upward trend in AUD/USD.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis – Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern

The 4-hour chart for NZD/USD shows bullish price action above the 0.5870 level. The emergence of this bullish price action indicates that the pair is preparing to move toward 0.6140. The negative price action in the US Dollar Index supports the bullish momentum in NZD/USD and signals further upside potential.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Head and Shoulders Pattern

The 4-hour chart for USD/JPY shows that the pair is consolidating within the 140 to 151 range. After hitting the 151 level, the pair reversed lower and formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern below 148.30. A break below 146.50 would indicate a strong drop toward the 142 level.

The emergence of a head and shoulders pattern at the 151 resistance also signals negative pressure in the short term. A decisive break of the 140 to 151 range is required to trigger the next significant move in the short term.