AUD/USD Sellers Targeting .7075 – .7052

The Australian Dollar is edging lower on Monday, but inside the previous session’s range as investors weigh geopolitical tensions between the Ukraine and Russia against rising inflation and a move toward higher interest rates.

After surging to its highest level since January 20, the Aussie has been pressured for three straight sessions after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philp Lowe suggested on Thursday the central bank policymakers have little urgency to tighten.

At 07:50 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7126, down 0.0011 or -0.15%. On Friday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA) settled at $70.76, down $0.28 or -0.40%.

Despite Lowe’s dovish comments, investors are betting the RBA will have to follow the Fed and act earlier, with futures pricing in a move to 0.25% by June and four more hikes to 1.25% by year-end.

Meanwhile, investors are speculating the U.S. Federal Reserve could hike by 50 basis points at its March monetary policy meeting.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since Thursday’s closing price reversal top.

A trade through .7052 will change the main trend to down. A move through .7249 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

On the upside, retracement zone resistance comes in at .7141 to .7181. On the downside, the retracement zone support is .7108 to .7075.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by a pair of 50% levels at .7108 and .7141.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7108 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a Fibonacci level at .7075, followed by a main bottom at .7052.

Taking out .7052 will not only change the main trend to down, but it could also trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target area .6967 – .6963.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7141 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into the Fibonacci level at .7181. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with .7249 – .7262 the next likely targets.