Bitcoin Price Rally Above $70K Risks Trapping Bulls, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rebound above $70,000 may set up bulls for another painful reversal, according to crypto analyst Symbiote.

Bitcoin May Drop To $64,000

The analyst argues that Bitcoin’s rebound was partly driven by a monthly price imbalance around the $66,000–$69,000 region, an area left behind during BTC’s previous rapid sell-off.

Such imbalances form when price moves so quickly that relatively little trading occurs within a certain range. Traders often expect the market to revisit these areas later as price seeks to rebalance the inefficient move.

Bitcoin has now filled much of that imbalance and rallied into an even stronger resistance cluster near $69,000–$70,000, where its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA, blue) and bull-market support band converge.

Symbiote expects this confluence to cap the recovery and potentially trigger another selloff.

A confirmed rejection below $70,000 could put the $63,000–$64,000 area back in focus, coinciding with the 20- (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs, and the lower trendline of what appears to be Bitcoin’s prevailing bear flag pattern.

A decisive close below the $64,000 level risks sending the price to a level at length equal to the previous downtrend’s height. That means a drop below $50,000 in the coming days,

Conversely, a decisive weekly close above the resistance band, followed by a successful retest as support, would weaken the bearish outlook and could open the path toward the $76,000–$80,000 region.

Short-Term Holders Add to Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk

Bitcoin’s latest rally is also triggering its strongest wave of short-term holder  (STH) profit-taking this year, adding another potential source of selling pressure near resistance.

The latest upside move prompted STHs to send more than 44,300 BTC in profit to exchanges, marking their largest profit-taking event of 2026, according to data resource CryptoQuant.

The spike came as several bullish catalysts improved sentiment, including expectations for larger US Treasury buybacks, which helped push long-term yields lower, and renewed comments from President Donald Trump about expanding the US government’s role in Bitcoin and crypto.

Still, the on-chain response suggests many recent buyers are choosing to lock in gains as BTC approaches major technical resistance.

That could make the $69,000–$70,000 range even harder to break decisively, particularly if exchange inflows continue to rise while price struggles to hold above the STH cost basis.