Key Insights:
- On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.08% to end the day at $20,833. Notably, BTC visited $21,000 for the second time since September 13.
- Market hopes of a December Fed pivot continued to deliver support following US economic indicators from Friday.
- The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 34/100, as Fed fear subsides.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.08%. Following a 1.53% gain from Friday, BTC ended the day at $20,833. Notably, BTC wrapped up the day at $20,000 for the fifth consecutive session while visiting $21,000 for the second time since September 13.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early morning low of $20,576. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,174, BTC rallied to a late morning high of $21,091. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,908 before easing back to end the day at sub-$20,900.
The return to $21,000 reflects the continued shift in market sentiment toward Fed monetary policy.
On September 13, the US CPI report for August sent BTC and the broader market into a downward spiral. This week, the hope of a December Fed pivot has delivered price support. The influence of the Fed on BTC will likely continue near-term, leaving the correlation with the NASDAQ in place.
The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady at 34/100 on Fed Pivot Hopes
This morning, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 34/100. Investor sentiment toward Fed monetary policy continued to deliver price support. The latest upswing in the Fear & Greed Index reflects the marked shift in investor sentiment, signaling a possible bearish trend reversal.
Near-term, US economic indicators will remain the focal point as investors await the Fed policy decision on November 2.
However, the Index will need to target 40/100 and the neutral zone to support a BTC bearish trend reversal. A fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.
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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.11% to $20,855. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $20,812 before rising to a high of $20,858.
Technical Indicators
BTC needs to avoid the $20,833 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,091 and the Saturday high of $21,091. A BTC return to $21,000 would signal a possible breakout session.
In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,348 and $21,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,863.
A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,576 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,500 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $20,318.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $19,803.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $20,174.
The 50-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling away from the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.
The bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA supports a move through R1 ($21,091) to target R2 ($21,348) and $21,500. However, a fall through S1 ($20,576) would bring S2 ($20,318) and the 50-day EMA ($20,174) into view.
