Ethena (ENA) has flashed a bullish golden cross on its three-day chart, but a similar setup in 2025 suggests the token could correct sharply before continuing its broader recovery.
ENA Golden Cross Fractal Points to 35% Correction
ENA was trading near $0.26 on Oct. 1, after rebounding roughly 250% from its summer local low near $0.075 and briefly approaching $0.28.
The rally has pushed ENA’s 20-period three-day exponential moving average (20-3D EMA, green) above its 100-3D EMA (purple), producing a golden cross. The two averages currently sit near $0.177 and $0.176, respectively.
A similar crossover appeared during ENA’s mid-2025 rally. At the time, the token advanced toward roughly $0.80 before momentum weakened, leading to an approximately 34% correction toward the $0.53 region.
The current structure is showing comparable signs of overheating.
ENA’s three-day relative strength index has climbed to around 74, placing it in overbought territory. Meanwhile, price is testing its declining 200-period EMA (blue) near $0.276, which could act as a major resistance level.
A 35% correction from the $0.26-$0.28 region would place the downside target around $0.17-$0.18 if ENA repeats its previous post-golden-cross pullback,
Notably, that area overlaps with the newly crossed 20- and 100-period EMAs, making it a potential support zone if the broader recovery remains intact.
Conversely, a decisive three-day close above the $0.276-$0.29 resistance range would weaken the bearish fractal and improve the odds of further upside.
Strong Fundamentals Have Fueled ENA’s 250% Rally
ENA’s sharp recovery has coincided with improving Ethena fundamentals and a more favorable tokenomics outlook.
The Ethena Foundation has moved to reduce the investor-unlock overhang while introducing a revenue-funded ENA buyback framework, strengthening the relationship between Ethena’s protocol growth and potential token demand.
Ethena has also expanded the yield-generation model behind its USDe synthetic dollar. In September, the protocol added exposure to tokenized US equities through Binance’s bStocks and equity perpetuals, diversifying beyond its traditional crypto basis-trading strategy.
Meanwhile, Ethena Pay has expanded the project’s reach into payments, adding another potential use case for its stablecoin ecosystem.
Standard Chartered initiated ENA coverage in late September and projected that USDe supply could grow from roughly $4.9 billion to $40 billion by 2028.
These developments help explain ENA’s strong recovery, although its stretched momentum indicators suggest the market may first need a cooling-off phase before attempting another sustained advance.
