Rising Bond Yields Put Bitcoin on Defense Ahead of Key Seasonal Window
The crypto market has been hovering at the same market capitalisation level for some time now, remaining close to $2.86T for the eighth day in a row. However, it is worth noting that since the start of this trading week, price action has been more concentrated at the lower end of the range. We do not yet see this as a sign of a bearish reversal, but rather as growing caution amid uncertainty, which is driving demand for the dollar. Among the most liquid coins over the past 24 hours, the top gainers were IOTA (+7.8%), NEAR (+4.6%) and AAVE (+3.4%). The biggest fallers were Internet Computer (−4.3%), Filecoin (−3.5%) and Ethereum Classic (−1.9%).
Bitcoin has once again failed to hold above $85K, as the upward momentum triggered by weaker-than-expected inflation figures quickly fizzled amid an ongoing sell-off in global government bonds. The leading cryptocurrency is caught between pressure from a strengthening dollar and the desire among some investors to temporarily steer clear of falling assets.
The persistence of the bond sell-off is a very worrying sign, capable of triggering a sell-off across all markets almost overnight. It is easy to find periods in history when turmoil in traditional finance has benefited crypto. Still, it is impossible to predict when the market will shift from caution to panic.
Bitcoin rose by 6.1% in September to $83.7K, defying the seasonal trends of the year’s worst months for the second month running. From a seasonal perspective, October is one of the best months of the year, earning it the informal nickname ‘Uptober’. Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has ended the month with gains on 10 occasions. The average gain was 27.4%, while the average decline was 13%.
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Institutional investors have shifted their focus: instead of debating the merits of buying the asset, they have moved on to discussing the practical applications of Bitcoin and the development of capital market infrastructure around it, according to TD Cowen.
Bitfinex highlights Bitcoin’s resilience, which has successfully weathered a historically weak September. However, the current BTC rally is losing momentum. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields are weighing down sentiment.
Unrealised on-chain profits among short-term holders have reached a 21-month high, raising the risk of profit-taking and a short-term correction for the leading cryptocurrency, CryptoQuant warns.
Signs of a sell-off are also emerging in the altcoin sector. The number of transactions transferring coins to exchanges has reached its highest level since October 2025, which typically indicates preparations for selling.
Bitcoin is entering a ‘gold rush’ period that could last until 2034, according to Strategy founder Michael Saylor. In his view, the main driver of BTC’s growth over the next three years will be the development of bank lending secured against the leading cryptocurrency.
The FxPro Analyst Team
