Ethereum (ETH) managed to cut some of its early losses during today’s session after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge came in below the market’s expectations.
The top altcoin swung from a session low of $2,655 to $2,730 following the release of the PCE Price Index. The annualized variation of this key metric stood at 3.4% in August, meaning 30 basis points below the market’s consensus estimate for the period.
Similarly, the Core PCE Price Index came in 10 basis points below analysts’ prediction, indicating that inflation could be cooling down.
As a result, the odds of a 25 basis points increase dropped from 68% yesterday to 37% at the time of writing, according to data from FedWatch. In summary, analysts no longer expect a rate hike during the next FOMC meeting, and that is great news for crypto assets.
Ethereum Trading Volumes and MVRV Ratio Confirm the Beginning of a Bull Market
On-chain data has confirmed the beginning of a bull market for Ethereum (ETH), as the MVRV Ratio just crossed above the zero line for the first time since July 2025.
We think we are seeing a replay of what happened back then, as the price consolidated between $2,400 and $2,700 before resuming its uptrend to $3,000 and beyond.
In the last three instances that this on-chain metric has moved above zero, ETH has rallied past $4,000. Although the macroeconomic backdrop in the United States remains a bit challenging, we don’t see any signs that things will be different this time.
In addition, trading volumes have been steadily rising — another indication that a bull market has commenced.
Data from Santiment shows a bullish crossover between the 7-day and 30-day moving average for volumes. The last three times this happened, it marked the beginning of a strong bullish cycle for Ethereum as well.
Higher volumes tend to indicate rising buying pressure. Hence, if today’s positive inflation print manages to push ETH above $3,000, this could set the stage for the continuation of the current rally to what we believe is the most likely target for Ethereum in the next few weeks — the $3,400 area.
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See all Ethereum forecastsGlamsterdam Rollout Could Propel ETH to $3,400 as 2025 Bull Market Pattern Repeats
Apart from today’s inflation print, the market could be setting its eyes on the Glamsterdam upgrade — a technical overhaul that developers expect to roll out during the fourth quarter of 2026.
Back in May 2025, the Pectra upgrade catalyzed the rally that ultimately pushed ETH to its current all-time high. We see the stars lining up similarly this time, and the price action is mimicking the moves we saw back then.
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price action reacted strongly shortly after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit what has been a historic low at 30.
That marked the end of a previous bearish cycle and drove ETH above its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) in less than two weeks.
The next move was a retest of that EMA from above, which is what we currently expect for the top altcoin. The market needs additional liquidity to keep rallying, and late buyers need to get in to push the price to higher thresholds.
Hence, we see ETH consolidating and potentially pulling back to $2,500 before the uptrend resumes. Once that happens, the way should be paved for a move toward $3,400 in the next 4 to 8 weeks.
