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Gold Price Forecast: Softer PCE Sparks Key Trend-Line Bounce

By: 
Christopher Lewis

Gold rebounds from a major trend line after softer PCE inflation data, but elevated rates and upcoming U.S. jobs data keep the broader outlook uncertain.

Gold Technical Analysis

TradingView daily candlestick chart of Gold futures bouncing off an upward trendline near 4,222.4, below the 50-day EMA at 4,361.5 and 200-day EMA at 4,338.7.
Daily candlestick chart of Gold showing price rebounding from major trendline support toward the 4,222.4 level.

Gold markets gapped higher to kick the Wednesday session off. At this point in time, the market is one that I’m watching very closely because interest rates are drifting sideways as the market gaps to the upside, bouncing off a major trend line. All things being equal, this is a market that more likely than not will continue to be a noisy one, as there are so many moving pieces when it comes to influence.

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The demand area underneath continues to be an area that I watch as well. With interest rates being so elevated, it does work against the value of gold. But quite frankly, this is a market that, no matter how you slice it, is a little oversold in the short term.

We do have a lot of economic announcements to pay attention to. The first one would be the PCE numbers on Wednesday, but we also have the jobs number coming out on Friday, which could give us an idea of whether inflation is going to rise or fall. It’s hard to tell at this point in time.

PCE a Little Weaker Than Anticipated

For what it’s worth, the PCE numbers did come in a little lower than anticipated, but GDP is hotter. So whether or not that makes a difference, we’ll just have to wait and see. But it certainly looks like we’re at least trying to recover.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think is still trying to find a bigger move. With this, most traders are looking at this from a short-term perspective more than anything else, as we bounce around between two sideways consolidation areas.

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About the Author

Christopher LewisSenior Analyst

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

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