Gold Could Not Hold the Early Bid
Spot Gold (XAUUSD) started Thursday higher, but the buying did not last. The dollar stayed firm, Treasury yields stayed high and Fed rate expectations did not turn in gold’s favor. Gold has debt worries and shipping risk underneath it, but neither one was strong enough to keep buyers in control.
Gold never got near Wednesday’s minor top Thursday. The market is still reacting to the washout earlier this week, not building a recovery.
At 16:05 GMT, spot gold is trading at $4,107.44, down $3.90 or -0.09%. It opened at $4,112.73, reached $4,143.43 and bottomed at $4,103.45.
The Fed Still Has Another Hike in the Market
The September Fed minutes did not give gold traders much room to buy. Officials agreed on the quarter-point increase, but not all for the same reason. Some were focused on energy and other price shocks. Others were worried inflation was spreading through demand.
Either way, officials still think inflation is too high. They aren’t ready to let long-term yields carry the tightening.
Governor Christopher Waller said more hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation down, though not necessarily back to back.
FedWatch puts the odds of a hold at the October 28 meeting at 80.6%, with a 19.4% chance of another quarter-point increase. December is a different trade. The market puts 86.3% odds on at least one increase by the December 9 meeting.
December is the date gold has to carry.
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See all Gold forecastsThe Dollar Is Still Near Its High
The U.S. Dollar Index was trading at 102.328 Thursday, within reach of Monday’s 102.535 high. It held above the 101.800 to 101.977 support area earlier in the week and buyers came back in.
The index is also well above its 50-day moving average at 100.037 and its 200-day moving average at 99.386. That is not a dollar market that has broken down.
The euro is part of the story. French debt concerns and a wider gap between French and German bond yields have pushed the euro near its lowest level since May 2025.
Gold got an early lift Thursday and couldn’t hold it with the Dollar Index sitting that close to its high.
Long-Term Yields Are Still Too High for Buyers to Ignore
The 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.30% Thursday after reaching 5.354% Wednesday, its highest level since 2002. The 30-year was near 5.65% after trading just under a 24-year high the day before.
The 10-year auction Wednesday drew strong central-bank demand, but it still cleared at the highest yield since November 2000. Buyers showed up. They demanded a lot of yield to do it.
Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday. That is the next test for a market that has been questioning who will own long-dated U.S. debt as deficits grow and oil climbs.
Those same deficit worries are part of why gold has a floor under it. With yields over 5%, nobody’s in a hurry to chase it.
Hormuz Risk Is Supporting Gold, Not Lifting It
The Strait of Hormuz is still a risk for the metal. Tanker operators are dealing with more threats and intimidation after Iran warned it could block routes it has not authorized.
That keeps a geopolitical bid under gold. It also helps explain why the market did not collapse after Wednesday’s selloff.
It hasn’t turned the trend, though. Traders are looking at Treasury yields, the dollar and December before they look at the tankers.
Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis
Spot gold is trading lower Thursday after failing to extend the early rally. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main top at $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. A move through the main bottom at $4,066.54 will reaffirm the downtrend.
The minor trend is down. Wednesday’s high at $4,184.38 is the new minor top. A trade through this level will turn the minor trend up and show that buyers are doing more than reacting to the low.
The first resistance is the long-term 61.8% level at $4,230.51. Above it, resistance comes in at $4,315.81, followed by the 50-day moving average at $4,331.62.
A break through $4,066.54 would expose the main bottoms at $3,996.06, $3,959.80 and $3,942.10. The 61.8% retracement level at $3,886.46 is the deeper downside target.
What to Watch
The 30-year Treasury auction is the next live test for gold. The 10-year sale found buyers Wednesday, and the yield still stayed high. The long end and the dollar haven’t backed off, and Thursday’s early buying didn’t survive that.
Spot gold topped at $4,143.43 early Thursday and slipped back toward $4,103.45 by midday in New York. The bias is to the downside while the main and minor trends are down, gold remains under $4,230.51 and the market trades below the 50-day moving average. Buyers need to take out $4,184.38 first. Sellers need $4,066.54 to resume the downtrend.
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